Core view
The trading volume of new houses and second-hand houses this week decreased compared with last week. This week, the number of new houses sold in 36 cities was 22000, down 40.0% month on month and 54.3% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 13 large and medium-sized cities was 14000, down 33.2% month on month and 51.8% year-on-year; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities changed by – 29.3%, – 46.9% and 66.3% month on month respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 49.4%, – 58.6% and – 23.3% respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 15 cities was 8000, down 29.6% month on month and 46.2% year-on-year; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 11 large and medium-sized cities was 7000, down 29.8% month on month and 44.6% year-on-year; 1、 The number of second-hand housing transactions in second and third tier cities increased by – 26.8%, – 31.4% and – 28.9% month on month respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were – 43.9%, – 44.0% and – 52.8% respectively.
The inventory of new houses and the decontamination cycle have increased compared with last week. The inventory of new houses in 15 cities was 1026000 units, up 0.4% month on month, and the decontamination cycle was 17.5 months, up 1 month month on month; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 560000, up 0.5% month on month and 3.0% year-on-year. The decontamination cycle was 13.0 months, up 0.9 months month on month; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 265000 units, up 1.0% month on month, with a 12.0 month cycle and an increase of 1 month month on month. The inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 205000 units, down 0.3% month on month, with a 14.4 month cycle and an increase of 1.5 months on month. The inventory of new houses in the third tier cities was 90000 units, up 0.8% month on month, with a 13.3 month cycle and a decrease of 1.3 months on month.
The overall land premium has decreased compared with the weekly decline in the market. The number of all types of land traded in Baicheng was 291, down 11.0% month on month and 47.6% year-on-year; The planned construction area of the land traded was 17.36 million square meters, down 9.7% month on month and 50.7% year-on-year; The total land transaction price was 42 billion yuan, an increase of 21.9% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 27.3%; The average floor price of land traded was 2419 yuan / m2, up 33.9% month on month and 47.3% year-on-year; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 1.00%, down 78.2% month on month and 95.7% year-on-year.
Investment advice
Since April, we can clearly see that the cities with the introduction of real estate policies have gradually expanded from third and fourth tier cities to weak second tier provincial capitals, and the adjustment efforts have been increasing, from the relaxation of credit, house purchase subsidies, provident fund loan preferences to the relaxation of the “four restrictions”. This week, Lanzhou lowered the down payment ratio to 20%. According to our statistics, at least 14 cities have successively reduced the proportion of down payment. We believe that the number of cities with subsequent reduction of the proportion of down payment will continue to increase. Chongqing banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission proposed to reasonably determine the first housing mortgage loan standard for new citizens who meet the purchase conditions, reduce the purchase credit cost with the characteristics of “deposit before loan” and “constant low interest”, and accurately meet the financing needs of new citizens for medium and long-term purchase. We believe that the new deal of Chongqing, a strong second tier city, has certain signal significance. It is expected that more high-energy cities will follow up the subsequent adjustment of the approved standards of new citizens and house purchase preferences. On the whole, however, in terms of the depth of policy adjustment, the follow-up of high-energy cities is slightly insufficient. We think we can focus on whether the market downturn reflected in the data released by the Bureau of statistics in mid April is in line with expectations. We are optimistic that the scope and strength of the follow-up real estate policies will continue to be strengthened. It is suggested to pay attention to the policy follow-up of some strong second tier cities, such as Chengdu, Xiamen, Wuhan and Hangzhou. From the perspective of sector investment, we believe that April is still a good configuration window period, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of the real estate sector. We suggest paying attention to four main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Regional central state-owned enterprises or regional leading private enterprises with high financial report security and stable cash flow: China Construction Development International, Yuexiu real estate, Midea real estate, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) . 3) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . 4) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination and accelerated concentration, as well as the recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life, poly property, Zhonghai property and xinchengyue service.
Risk tips
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
