Prefabricated dishes: originated in the United States, and entered an accelerated period after the outbreak
Prefabricated dishes are prepared with agricultural, livestock, poultry and aquatic products as raw materials, with various auxiliary materials or food additives, which can be directly cooked or eaten after being processed by cutting, stirring, pickling, rolling, forming, seasoning and other processes. They are characterized by convenience and efficiency. In the 1960s, prefabricated dishes originated in the United States; In the 1980s, the development of prefabricated dishes gradually matured; In the 1990s, prefabricated vegetables were introduced into China, and Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) and other deep-processing semi-finished vegetable enterprises were established one after another. Around 2010, the b-end of prefabricated vegetables entered the high-volume period; After the outbreak in 2020, the demand for C-end increased rapidly, and prefabricated vegetable enterprises have arranged the C-end market one after another. According to the processing depth and edible convenience of raw materials, prefabricated dishes can be divided into instant food, instant hot food, instant cooked food and instant matching food.
The industry is in a blue ocean of competition, and the concentration needs to be improved
According to ncbd data, the sales volume of China's Prefabricated vegetable industry increased from 65.03 billion yuan in 2015 to 252.7 billion yuan in 2020, with a five-year CAGR of 31%. It is expected that the sales volume will exceed 830 billion yuan in 2025. At present, the penetration rate of prefabricated vegetables in China is only 10% - 15%, while the penetration rate of prefabricated vegetables in the United States and Japan has reached more than 60%. In addition, the concentration of China's Prefabricated food industry is low, CR10 is only 14.23%, while Japan's Cr5 is 64.04%, and Sysco, the leader of American prefabricated food, accounts for 16%.
The demand of the BC side is made at the same time, and the C side is expected to become the focus
B end: demand end: 1) catering enterprises can save 80% of labor cost, reduce rental cost, improve meal efficiency and ensure the stability of meal taste and quality by producing prefabricated dishes through central kitchen. 2) In 2020, the market share of group meal has reached 38.3%. Prefabricated dishes can reduce the operation cost of group meal and solve the difficulties of standardized supply.
Supply side: 1) the number of refrigerated vehicles will increase to 275000 in 2020, and the capacity of cold storage will increase to 77.19 million tons in 2021. It is expected that the scale of cold chain market will exceed 700 billion yuan in 2023. 2) The output of aquaculture will increase to 507807 million tons in 2019, the large-scale rate of livestock breeding will reach 67.5% in 2020, and the output of condiments will reach 16.271 million tons in 2020. The annual grain output was stable at 660670 million tons, and the level of agricultural mechanization reached 71%.
C-side: demand side: 1) the epidemic has stimulated the "lazy house economy", the demand for online residents has increased, and the number of active users of fresh e-commerce wechat apps has increased by 66%. New retail provides a convenient way to buy prefabricated vegetables. 2) Prefabricated dishes are in line with the consumption upgrading trend; 3) The penetration rate of "lazy house economy" in Z era is 8% higher than that of the post-80s generation, and the consumption of prefabricated vegetables has reached 34.9%, or it will become the main consumer of prefabricated vegetables; 4) The average family size is as low as 2.62 people, and the marriage rate is as low as 6.6%, driving the growth of demand for prefabricated vegetables.
Supply side: 1) at present, the proportion of BC side of prefabricated dishes is 8:2, and the scale of C-side in China is 6.69 billion US dollars, which is only 29% of that in Japan and 15% of that in the United States in the same period; 2) The scale of fresh e-commerce industry increased from 49.7 billion yuan in 2015 to 458.5 billion yuan in 2020, and the five-year CAGR was 56%; 3) The scale of community group purchase increased from 380 million yuan in 2017 to 72 billion yuan in 2020, and the three-year CAGR reached 474%; 4) The transaction scale of social e-commerce increased from 360.74 billion yuan in 2016 to 286505 billion yuan in 2021, and the five-year CAGR was 51%.
There are many participants in the industry, and there is no obvious leader yet
The prefabricated vegetable industry includes five major participants, each with advantages in channel, product and supply chain:
1) raw material supplier: it has strong supply chain capability and cost advantage. Representative enterprises such as Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) , Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Longda food, etc.
2) prefabricated vegetable production enterprise: the manufacturer of prefabricated vegetables has professional background. Representative enterprises such as Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhenwei plum garden, xinliangji, haodeli, etc.
3) quick frozen food enterprises: have the advantages of cold chain processing and transportation, and have a high degree of production standardization. Representative enterprises such as Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , etc.
4) chain catering enterprises: build their own central kitchen to realize the standardized production of prefabricated dishes. Representative enterprises such as Haidilao, Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , northwest Jia Guolong, etc.
5) retailers: Prefabricated dishes have become a new growth point with strong promotion ability. Representative enterprises such as Ding Dong to buy vegetables, box horse fresh, Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , daily excellent fresh, etc.
Industry rating and investment strategy
At present, the prefabricated vegetable industry is in the blue ocean stage, and the BC end has ushered in development opportunities and broad development space. We have rated the industry as "overweight". It is suggested to focus on Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) and Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) .
Risk tips
The risk that the epidemic has dragged down consumption, the change of consumption habits does not meet expectations, the downstream demand is less than expected, the price fluctuation risk of raw materials, and the performance of key companies is less than expected.
