Key investment points
The prosperity of photovoltaic industry continues, focusing on the expansion of production and driving the demand for equipment
On April 6, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) announced that it planned to sign the cooperation framework agreement on Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) Baotou 20GW high efficiency photovoltaic module project with the Management Committee of Baotou rare earth high tech Industrial Development Zone, and planned to invest 5 billion yuan to build 20GW high efficiency photovoltaic module project in Baotou Rare earth high tech Zone, which will be implemented by stages. On April 8, Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) announced that it had recently signed an investment agreement with the Management Committee of Jiangsu Jianhu high tech Industrial Development Zone, and reached a cooperation intention on the company’s investment and construction of Jianhu (phase II) 10GW photovoltaic silicon wafer project in Jianhu County, Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province. The project is expected to be put into operation in two stages in 2023 and 2024 (5GW large silicon chip chip production capacity is planned to be built in each stage). Driven by “carbon neutrality” and affordable Internet access, the downstream photovoltaic cells and modules have strong willingness to expand production, which is expected to continue to promote the continuation of the demand boom of photovoltaic equipment. With the increase of the marginal cost of perc technical efficiency, the cost performance advantages of TOPCON / IBC and other processes gradually appear, which is expected to enter the stage of large-scale industrialization. In the long run, technological iteration and large-scale mass production will accelerate the balance between efficiency and cost, focusing on Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , etc.
Chip shortage continues, and equipment import substitution ushers in opportunities
According to IC insights, the total sales of the global semiconductor IC market reached US $509.8 billion in 2021, an increase of 25% compared with 2020. It is expected that the total sales of semiconductors will increase by 11% in 2022, continuing the growth trend. According to the statistics of Susquehanna financial group, the delivery date of chips in March 2022 reached 26.6 weeks, the longest delivery date since the agency tracked in 2017. The capacity utilization rate of major foundries is close to 100%, reflecting that the current chip supply shortage is still continuing. Chip demand drives wafer manufacturers to further raise capital expenditure. IC insight predicts that the capital investment of the global semiconductor industry will increase by 24% in 2022, reaching a record high of $190.4 billion, of which Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) ‘s investment will increase by about 12% this year, about $5 billion, and the demand for equipment will continue to boost. China, China’s China’s largest semiconductor equipment demand area, relies heavily on imports. It not only affects the development of China’s semiconductor industry, but also poses a major threat to the security of China’s information industry. The US sanctions and squeeze events further stimulate Chinese manufacturers’ crisis awareness, and the importance of self-control is highlighted. The verification work of the Chinese mainland’s new machine is expected to be actively promoted. It is suggested to focus on Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , shengmei Shanghai, etc.
Industry rating and opinion update this week
China’s manufacturing industry is in a period of continuous transformation and upgrading, which will bring broad market space to the high-end equipment industry and maintain the industry’s “overweight” rating. It is recommended to focus on industrial automation, self controlled semiconductor equipment, carbon neutralization, accelerating new energy industry and benefiting photovoltaic equipment and lithium battery equipment, urban rail equipment benefiting from new infrastructure, and oil service industry gradually recovering under the promotion of energy security.
This week’s core recommendations
Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) : the leading position of the company in the etching field of semiconductor equipment and the gradual large-scale production of the company’s MOCVD equipment in the field of mini led. The company is committed to building a platform company and will gradually grow into an influential semiconductor equipment company in the world.
Eurocrane (China) Co.Ltd(603966) : the company’s core product, European crane, shows its advantages under the background of “carbon neutrality”. As the leader of high-end crane, it is expected to increase the high-end market share under the background of manufacturing industry upgrading and import substitution at the same time.
China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) : as the leader of offshore oil and gas exploitation services, the company occupies the advantages of technology and scale, and has strong profit elasticity in the recovery period of global oil service; China has benefited from the steady increase in the certainty of “three barrels of oil” capital expenditure under the national energy security strategy, and the company is expected to enter the release period of profit flexibility.
Risk tips
The macroeconomic boom is lower than expected; China’s investment in fixed assets is less than expected; The implementation of policies in key industries is less than expected; There is uncertainty in the company’s promotion of relevant matters
