Core view:
Market review: this week, the mechanical equipment index fell 1.03%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.06%, and the gem index fell 3.64%. Mechanical equipment ranked 10th in all 28 industries. After excluding negative values, the valuation level of the machinery industry is 22.7 (overall method). The top three sectors in the machinery industry this week are construction machinery, rail transit equipment and instruments; Since the beginning of the year, the top three segments are oil and gas development equipment, instruments and meters and injection molding machines.
Zhou concern: the decline in excavator sales expanded in March, and the manufacturing industry was under short-term pressure affected by the epidemic
In March, the decline of excavator sales expanded, and the export continued to grow. According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in March 2022, 26 excavator manufacturing enterprises sold 37085 excavators of various types, a year-on-year decrease of 53.1%; Among them, 26556 units in China, a year-on-year decrease of 63.6%; 10529 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 73.5%. From January to March 2022, 77175 excavators were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 39.2%; Including 51886 sets in China, a year-on-year decrease of 54.3%; 25289 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 88.6%.
Bloomberg reported that the construction machinery sector rose sharply, and China's demand growth is still weak at this stage. The construction machinery sector performed well this week, with the index rising by 6.3%, mainly due to the recent Bloomberg report that China's infrastructure investment will reach at least $2.3 trillion in 2022, triggering a warm response from the market. However, it can be seen that the data of Bloomberg basically corresponds to the total investment plans of major projects in all provinces, which is quite different from the indicators of China's infrastructure investment this year. From January to February this year, the new construction area of houses in China decreased by 12.2%, real estate investment is still weak, and the annual infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a steady growth. Superimposed on the downward trend of equipment renewal demand, the sales volume of excavators has continued to decline year-on-year since the second half of last year. We believe that all economic data show that China's demand for construction machinery industry is still insufficient at this stage, and investment needs to wait for the inflection point of demand.
Affected by the epidemic, the performance of manufacturing enterprises is under pressure in the short term. Under the influence of the continuous rebound of this round of epidemic, the downward pressure on China's economy is increasing. For manufacturing enterprises, on the one hand, the demand side is restrained; On the other hand, under the relatively strict epidemic prevention and control measures, some enterprises have stopped production, limited personnel flow, the decline of China's logistics capacity, the production, delivery, acceptance and other links of enterprises have been affected, and the efficiency of the supply chain has decreased significantly, which may affect the performance of enterprises in the first quarter and even the first half of the year. As the epidemic situation is gradually controlled, the production and delivery capacity of enterprises will be restored. In order to alleviate the impact of the epidemic and geopolitical situation on China's economy, the main line of steady growth will be more prominent, and manufacturing investment will become an important driving point. We continue to be optimistic about photovoltaic equipment, new energy vehicle industry chain, industrial machine tools, specialization and innovation and other segments of the mechanical equipment industry in line with the development trend of the times for a long time.
Investment suggestion: long term optimistic about the investment opportunities in the mechanical equipment industry under the main line of steady growth. The key investment directions include photovoltaic equipment, new energy charging and replacement equipment, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , industrial machine tools, specialization and innovation and other subdivided fields. In terms of beneficiary objects, in the field of photovoltaic equipment, Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) , etc; Field of power exchange equipment Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) , Bozhon Precision Industry Technology Co.Ltd(688097) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) , etc; Industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) field Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) ; Industrial machine field Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) , Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) , Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) , Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co.Ltd(000837) , Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) , Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool Co.Ltd(002559) ; Specialize in new fields Shareate Tools Ltd(688257) etc.
Risk warning: covid-19 pneumonia epidemic situation is repeated; The degree of policy promotion is less than expected; The growth rate of manufacturing investment was lower than expected; Intensified industry competition, etc.
