Manganese series cathode materials may become an important technical development direction in the future. With the gradual maturity of lithium manganese iron phosphate modification technology and process, the material properties are significantly improved. We expect to supply in small quantities in 2022, and then its penetration rate will gradually increase. By 2025, the demand is expected to reach 220000 tons, and some cathode materials and power battery enterprises are expected to benefit; Maintain the rating that the industry is stronger than the market.
Lithium manganese iron phosphate has significant advantages, and the modification technology is gradually mature: the voltage platform of lithium manganese iron phosphate is significantly higher than that of lithium iron phosphate. Under the condition of almost the same gram capacity, the energy density of the material can be increased by about 20%, which is used in power batteries, which is helpful to further improve the energy density of battery packs. In addition, as the main raw material of lithium manganese iron phosphate adopts manganese compounds, its reserves and abundance are relatively high, so it has obvious advantages on the cost side of raw materials. According to the calculation, the raw material cost of lithium manganese iron phosphate is about 28% lower than that of lithium iron phosphate, which has great application prospects in the future. However, due to the poor conductivity of lithium ferromanganese phosphate itself, which is similar to insulator, the large-scale application of lithium ferromanganese phosphate is seriously restricted.
It is expected to become an important technical development direction of cathode materials in the future: in order to improve the problems of lithium manganese iron phosphate, the materials can be modified by means of carbon coating, morphology regulation and ion doping, among which metal ion doping is an effective means. By forming a new phosphate series material in lithium manganese iron phosphate, the shortcomings of the material can be significantly improved and the electronic conductivity and ionic conductivity can be improved. The modified lithium manganese iron phosphate has the advantages of high energy density, good conductivity, low cost and high safety. It has good application prospects and is expected to become an important technical development direction of cathode materials in the future.
High requirements for synthesis methods: the synthesis methods of lithium manganese iron phosphate are similar to those of lithium iron phosphate, including solid-phase method and liquid-phase method. The cost of solid-phase method is low, but the raw materials are not easy to be evenly mixed, resulting in uneven particle size distribution and poor material properties. Compared with the solid phase method, the liquid phase method can realize the combination of elements at the molecular level. Because the synthesis of lithium manganese iron phosphate involves the combination of manganese, iron and modified metal elements, the material obtained by liquid phase method has more complete crystal structure and more stable material properties.
Mainstream material enterprises, battery enterprises and main engine plants have arranged one after another: lithium manganese iron phosphate has the advantages of high performance and low cost. Major material enterprises, battery enterprises and main engine plants have arranged the material one after another Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) and other material enterprises have applied for relevant material patents and arranged production capacity Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) through the acquisition of Litai lithium energy, the layout of lithium manganese iron phosphate; Volkswagen proposed high manganese battery, Tesla clearly proposed that the development of manganese battery is under way, and proposed to use 2 / 3 nickel and 1 / 3 manganese as cathode materials.
The demand is expected to reach more than 200000 tons in 2025: the modified lithium manganese iron phosphate has comprehensive performance advantages and has a large market space in the future. We estimate that the demand for lithium manganese iron phosphate is expected to be large in 2023, the penetration rate is expected to reach 30% in 2025, and the demand is expected to reach 220000 tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of more than 290%.
Investment suggestion: new energy vehicles continue to develop with high prosperity. According to the prediction of China Automobile Industry Association, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles is expected to reach more than 5 million in 2022. As the core component of new energy vehicles, the installed capacity of power batteries is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of new energy vehicles. At present, the cathode materials of power batteries are mainly lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. Lithium manganese iron phosphate is expected to gradually increase its share in cathode materials and has a broad market space because of its advantages of high energy density and low cost. Enterprises that have laid out relevant industrial chains of lithium manganese iron phosphate in the early stage are expected to benefit directly. For the recommendation of the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) the.
Risk tips: the progress of R & D and industrialization of new materials does not meet expectations, the price of raw materials fluctuates adversely, the industrial policy of new energy vehicles does not meet expectations, the product power of new energy vehicles does not meet expectations, the demand of the industrial chain does not meet expectations, and the impact of the epidemic is beyond expectations.
