Key points:
Market review: in the past two weeks, the brokerage index rose by 3.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.1pct. In the past two weeks (3.28-4.8), the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.9%, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.3%, and the gem index fell by 2.6%. Non bank finance (Shenwan) rose 3.3%, ranking 7 / 31 in rise and fall, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2 percentage points; Among them, the brokerage index rose 3.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.1 percentage points.
The top five securities companies were: Guoyuan Securities Company Limited(000728) (+ 11.3%), Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) (+ 9.8%), Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) (+ 7.1%), Shanghai Chinafortune Co.Ltd(600621) (+ 7%), Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) (+ 6.5%). The securities companies with the last five increases are: Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) (- 0.6%), Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) (- 1.2%), Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) (- 2.3%), Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) (- 3.1%), Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) (- 5.6%).
Industry weekly data: the daily average stock based trading volume of the two cities remained high
Brokerage business: last week (4.4-4.8), the daily average stock base turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1012.6 billion yuan, up 0.2% month on month. The daily average stock based trading volume fell slightly from the high in March, but remained high on the whole. Investment banking: last week (4.4-4.8), the scale of equity financing was 19.6 billion yuan (Mom – 20%); The IPO Financing scale was 6.7 billion yuan (Mom – 50%), and the refinancing scale was 12.9 billion yuan (mom + 15%). In terms of bond issuance, from January to March this year, the issuance scale of corporate bonds and corporate bonds was 97.5 billion and 747.8 billion respectively, with an increase of 9% and – 11% respectively over the same period last year.
Capital intermediary business: as of last Friday (April 8), the balance of margin trading and securities lending in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1656.5 billion yuan, down – 0.2% month on month; The balance of two financial institutions accounted for 2.57% of the total circulating market value of a shares, with a slight increase month on month.
Industry highlights: improve the financial stability system, and continue to promote the reform of the comprehensive registration system
(1) on April 6, the central bank publicly solicited opinions on the draft financial stability law. Specifically, the financial stability law defines the working mechanism of financial stability, compacts the responsibilities of all parties, defines the disposal levels, establishes the disposal fund pool, defines the fair and orderly disposal fund arrangement with matching rights, responsibilities and interests, and establishes the financial stability guarantee fund. The fund is composed of funds raised by financial institutions, financial infrastructure and other entities as well as other funds specified by the State Council, and is under the overall management of the financial commission of the State Council.
(2) on April 9, Yi Huiman delivered a positive signal at the Congress of the association of listed companies, mainly including: Solidly Promoting the full implementation of the reform of the stock issuance registration system; Pay close attention to the study and launch of a new round of independent opening-up and pragmatic measures, steadily expand the scope of the subject matter of the Shanghai Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect, promote the expansion and optimization of the Shanghai London Stock connect mechanism, and steadily expand the two-way opening of commodity and financial futures markets; We will promote China US cooperation in auditing and supervision to achieve results and build a predictable international regulatory environment for the high-level opening of the capital market.
Investment advice
In terms of policies, the deepening reform of the capital market has been promoted rapidly, the steady growth policy has been overweight, and the measures to stabilize the financial market have been continuously launched. The full implementation of the stock issuance registration system is expected to accelerate, and the development margin of the industry is expected to be better. In terms of valuation, the current valuation of Pb in the securities sector is only 1.44x, which is in the 10% quantile of Pb in recent 10 years, and the safety margin of the sector is high. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of head securities companies under the transformation of wealth management and maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk; The risk of sharp decline in the secondary market; Industry competition intensifies risks, etc.
