Event:
Recently, China Automobile Association released auto production and sales data in March 2022.
Comments:
Affected by the epidemic, automobile production and sales fell year-on-year in March. In March, the automobile production and sales volume were 2.241 million and 2.234 million respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% and 11.7% respectively, and a month on month increase of 23.6% and 28.6% respectively. In March, the epidemic broke out in many places in China, especially in the core areas of automobile industry such as Shanghai, Jilin and Guangdong, resulting in the suspension of production of some automobile manufacturers and the closure of some terminal stores. Affected by this, the automobile production and sales fell year-on-year in March. From January to March, the automobile production and sales volume were 6.484 million and 6.599 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2% and 0.2% respectively. In terms of passenger cars, the production and sales of passenger cars in March were 1.881 million and 1.864 million respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% and 0.6% respectively and a month on month increase of 22.6% and 25.3% respectively. The impact of the epidemic on passenger cars is relatively small. From January to March, the production and sales of passenger cars were 5.499 million and 5.545 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 11% and 9% respectively. In the first quarter, the wholesale growth of passenger cars was good, mainly due to the gradual improvement of chip supply, the superposition of replenishment demand and the booming sales of new energy vehicles. In terms of inventory, the manufacturer’s inventory increased by 10000 units month on month in March, decreased by 80000 units from January to March, decreased by 200000 units compared with the same period of last year, and the manufacturer’s inventory improved greatly; The dealer’s inventory coefficient is 1.75, above the warning line for two consecutive months.
The market share of independent brands continued to rise. In March, 230000 luxury cars were retailed, a year-on-year decrease of 14% and a month on month increase of 43%; Retail sales of 750000 self owned brands increased by 17% year-on-year and 37% month on month; Mainstream joint venture brands retail 590000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 30% and a month on month increase of 9%. In March, the wholesale market share of independent brands was 48.4%, up 9pct year on year; From January to March, the cumulative share was 46%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1pct.
In March, new energy vehicles maintained a high growth momentum year-on-year, and the penetration rate continued to rise. In March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 465000 and 484000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.15 times and 1.14 times respectively, and a month-on-month increase of 26.3% and 44.9% respectively. From January to March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1293000 and 1257000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.43 times and 1.44 times respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles in March were 443000 and 461000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times and 1.17 times respectively, and a month-on-month increase of 25.1% and 43.6% respectively. From January to March, the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.239 million and 1.207 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.44 times and 1.46 times respectively. In March, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 21.7%, an increase of 2.67 PCT over the previous month, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 24.7%, an increase of 3.14 PCT over the previous month. In March, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 46%, an increase of 4.1pct over the previous month, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury cars was 32%, an increase of 14.6pct over the previous month, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among mainstream joint venture brands was only 4.3%, an increase of 0.8pct over the previous month.
The sales volume of new energy vehicle enterprises performed better on a month on month basis. In March, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) sold 443000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, including 74500 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) sold 227000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, including 23000 new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 165% Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) sales volume was 100900, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%, including 15000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15.4% Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) sold 236000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. The sales volume of new energy vehicle enterprises generally increased rapidly, and Byd Company Limited(002594) remained in the lead. In March, the sales volume was 104900, a year-on-year increase of 3.3 times; The new forces in the front line are small and medium-sized, and the ideal growth is high, but Weilai is still relatively backward; Nezha, Zero run and other second tier new forces accelerated to catch up; North South Volkswagen sold 12700 new energy vehicles, accounting for 63% of the mainstream joint venture, up 5pct from the previous month.
Investment suggestion: the automobile production and sales in March were affected by the epidemic, which was lower than expected. It is expected that the epidemic factors will still have a negative impact on the automobile production and sales in April. Independent brands have strong toughness and continuous improvement of competitiveness. In terms of new energy vehicles, auto enterprises have sufficient orders on hand, supporting the continuous high growth momentum of production and sales, and the penetration rate has further increased. However, since this year, the decline of subsidies and the sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials have promoted the collective price rise in the new energy vehicle market, and the impact on subsequent new orders needs to be further observed. The negative impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the global auto manufacturing industry continued, and some factories of many auto enterprises around the world were forced to shut down or reduce production, which had a certain impact on the overseas business of some Chinese auto parts manufacturers. After the epidemic situation improves, automobile production and sales are expected to improve marginally. It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality parts suppliers that actively grasp the development trend of Automobile Electric Intelligence: Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ( Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ( Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ), Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ( Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) ( Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) ), Foryou Corporation(002906) ( Foryou Corporation(002906) ).
Risk tips: the epidemic situation, chip shortage and other factors lead to the risk that the production and sales of automobiles are less than expected, the risk of sharp rise in raw material prices, and the risk of impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the global automobile industry chain.
