Core conclusion
Aerogels are better insulation materials, longer life, better waterproofing and fire resistance than traditional thermal insulation materials. They are the most efficient insulation materials at present, and conform to the trend of energy saving and emission reduction. Aerogel is a solid material with nano porous network structure and filled with gas in the pores. At present, the main applications include aerogel pipes and heat pipe network insulation, heat insulation between lithium batteries, building external wall insulation and so on. Compared with the traditional thermal insulation materials, 1) its thermal insulation performance is 2-8 times that of the traditional material, so the aerogel consumption is less under the same heat preservation effect. 2) the aerogel replacement cycle is about 20 years, while the replacement period of the traditional thermal insulation material is about 5 years, so the whole life cycle cost is lower.
In the past 5 years, China’s aerogel market has achieved rapid cost reduction through technological progress. Currently, it has a very competitive price performance in petrochemical pipelines and lithium batteries. The demand for switching from downstream leading enterprises is strong. At the same time, under the current dual carbon policy, energy conservation will become the main theme of the future development of chemical, energy and construction industries. Aerogel has significant energy saving effect compared with traditional materials, and the industry demand will be promoted rapidly under the promotion of dual carbon policy. In the 20152020 year, the annual compound growth rate of China’s aerogel materials was 38.5%, and the current cost has dropped by over 80% over 10 years ago. We believe that the aerogel industry is at a rapid development stage of inflection point. The reason is that aerogels have high cost performance in the application of petrochemical pipelines and lithium batteries. Sinopec, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and other leading enterprises have switched from traditional heat insulation materials to aerogels, and the benchmarking effect of head enterprises will take off from the aerogel industry. According to Aspen’s prediction, the global market space will total 700 billion yuan in the next 10 years. We estimate that by 2025, the demand for aerogels for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) pipelines and central heating pipelines will reach 15 billion 400 million yuan, the demand for lithium batteries for aerogels will reach 1 billion 900 million yuan, the demand for aerogels for building materials will reach 730 million yuan, the aggregate demand will be 18 billion 400 million, and the average annual growth rate will reach 63.6% in the next 5 years.
With the advantage of excellent cost control and industrial chain integration, chemical enterprises will further reduce the cost of aerogels and promote the continuous upgrading of industry demand. At present, there are many listed companies in aerogel field. According to our statistics, China’s aerogel production capacity will total 167 thousand and 500 in 2021, and the next 2 years will add 235 thousand and 600 new suppliers. The average annual growth rate of the supply side will be 55%. Among the new entrants with multiple backgrounds, we look at the core competitiveness of each player from three dimensions: in the short term, the breakthrough and competitive advantage of drying technology; In the medium term, the division of labor in the industrial chain; In the long run, it has the advantage of self-sufficiency in raw materials. At present, the aerogel enterprises are mostly new materials non-listed company. After the big chemical enterprises who are good at lowering the cost, the raw materials of silane self support and excipient cycle will be expected to reduce the cost of aerogel synthesis by 3 Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) 0 yuan / square. The industry supply is expected to concentrate on the chemical enterprises which are good at reducing the cost. The significant decrease in aerogel cost will further promote the growth of the industry demand. It is suggested to pay attention to: Jiangxi Chen Guang New Materials Co.Ltd(605399) ( Jiangxi Chen Guang New Materials Co.Ltd(605399) .sh), China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) ( China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) .sh), Pan Asian Microvent Tech (Jiangsu) Corporation(688386) Pan Asian Microvent Tech (Jiangsu) Corporation(688386) .sh), Jiangxi Hungpai New Material Co.Ltd(605366) Jiangxi Hungpai New Material Co.Ltd(605366) .sh), Shanxi Huayang New Materialco.Ltd(600281) Shanxi Huayang New Materialco.Ltd(600281) .sh, Jiangsu Huachang Chemical Co.Ltd(002274) ( Jiangsu Huachang Chemical Co.Ltd(002274) .sz)
Risk hints: aerogels enter the enterprise technology breakthrough is less than expected and production capacity is lower than expected, resulting in slow release of the supply side capacity. Downstream demand for aerogel switching is lower than expected.
