Core view
Overview: the price of LUNI nickel soared to a record high, Castle Peak Group was forced by international capital, the amount of floating losses was huge, and the share price of Chinese Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) listed companies fell abnormally
[Qingshan group] the 200000 ton nickel position was forced short by international capital bulls, and its floating loss exceeded US $8 billion. On March 7, the share price of [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ] fell by 7.5%, and on March 8 and 9, [60399 Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ] fell by the limit for two consecutive days.
Game choice: Qingshan group has repeatedly opened short positions in lunni futures in LME
Through the prediction of its own production capacity and the nickel supply in the overall market in the future, Qingshan Group believes that the nickel price will fall. In order to reduce the fluctuation of total profit, it chooses to short Lun nickel for hedging.
“Grey rhinoceros” is coming: international events have triggered startling changes in the market
The international situation is becoming more and more complex. Russia is caught in the controversy of international events. Russian nickel is unable to trade in LME due to sanctions. The price of nickel accelerates due to changes in supply and demand. The bull of international capital futures further leads to its price soaring.
Deep attribution: attack and defense vs speculation, where is the sword pointing
[Castle Peak Group] the root cause of the crisis lies in the inconsistency between its main products and the subject matter of hedging. As an international capital buying spot and holding long futures, its speculative intention is obvious. If Castle Peak Group can deliver spot with assistance, international capital will undoubtedly suffer from itself.
How to deal with the aftermath: a number of nickel related listed companies in China responded in time to the “crazy nickel” incident
[ Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ] indicates that the production and operation are normal, and there is a risk of loss in the hedging business, but there is no forced liquidation; [ China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) ] indicates that after the completion of the Huayue hydrometallurgy nickel project invested by it, the nickel metal production capacity will reach 60000 tons / year; [ Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) ] and [ Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ] indicate that there is no nickel futures trading for the time being; [ Gem Co.Ltd(002340) Gem Co.Ltd(002340) ] indicates that the supply of nickel resources is sufficient, and the price rise is conducive to the improvement of its performance; ( Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) [302208 Qingdao Zhongzi Zhongcheng Group Co.Ltd(300208) ] indicates that its main business income does not involve the sales of nickel ore, and the nickel ore held has no impact on the performance; [ Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) ] indicates that the subsidiary’s products will be upgraded to high matte nickel, which is expected to contribute to the performance of listed companies from 2022; [ Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) ] said that its nickel recycling business has been carried out for many years, and the higher nickel price has brought additional benefits to the company’s sales and driven up the purchase cost.
