\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 460 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) )
[key points of investment]
The company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 11.16 billion yuan during the reporting period, a year-on-year increase of + 102%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 410%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 623%. Among them, the operating revenue in the fourth quarter was 4.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 152%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 297%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.48 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 991%.
The volume and price of lithium salt increased simultaneously, and the performance increased rapidly. Volume: in 2021, the production and sales of lithium series products were 89700 tons and 90700 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 65.23% and + 43.97%. Lithium batteries produced and sold 129 million and 119 million, 63.3% and 64.88% year-on-year. Price: the average sales price of H1 lithium salt was 72000 yuan / ton in 2021, and the average sales price of H2 lithium salt was 108000 yuan / ton in 2021, with a ring increase of 49.1%, indicating that the impact of long-term order pricing has gradually decreased, and the impact of lithium price rise has been smoothly transmitted to downstream customers. Cost: the main raw material for lithium salt supply of the company is spodumene, and the purchase amount accounts for 41.19% of the total purchase amount. The average purchase price of 2021h1 and H2 lithium concentrates is $438 and $1045 / ton. The company continues to enrich and broaden the diversified supply channels of raw materials. In 2021, the company made an offer to acquire bacanora and obtained its control, acquired 100% of the property share of Yili Hongda, indirectly held 49% equity of Yiliping, and acquired 50% equity of goulamina spodumene mine project in Mali.
The lithium salt plan was raised, and the self owned lithium mine entered the harvest period. The company has a capacity of 43000 tons of lithium carbonate, 81000 tons of lithium hydroxide and 2150 tons of metal lithium. The company plans to form a smelting capacity with a total annual output of 300000 tons of LCE (the previous value is 200000 tons) in 2025. We expect that the output of lithium ore in the company’s own equity will exceed 200000 tons in 2025, realizing the global resource layout and covering Asia, Australia, North America, South America, Africa and Europe. It has effectively avoided geopolitical risks and achieved independent control. At present, it is fully realizing mining and mass production. Lithium ore: mtmarion plans to increase the production capacity to Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons in April 2022 and 900000 tons / year by the end of 2022. The construction of 506000 tons of lithium concentrate of goulamina phase I project began in the fourth quarter of 2021. It is expected that the production capacity of phase I will be put into operation within 18 months after the production capacity of phase II will be 831000 tons of lithium concentrate. Sonora lithium clay project has the advantages of extracting lithium from ore and salt lake. It can not only complete the process of extracting lithium in a short time at a speed similar to that of extracting lithium from ore, but also complete the process of extracting lithium at a lower cost at a cost similar to that of extracting lithium from brine. It is also in the process of construction. In terms of salt lake lithium: the first phase of cauchari olaroz is planned to be 40000 tons of LCE, which will be put into operation in 2022, and the second phase will not be less than 20000 tons; Mariana lithium salt lake project has obtained the approval of the environmental impact report issued by the provincial government of Salta, Argentina, and has carried out the construction of a plant with an annual output of 20000 tons of lithium chloride; Yiliping Salt Lake plans to produce 10000 tons of LCE in 2022 and expand its production to 20000 tons in the future.
Lead the industrialization of solid-state batteries and realize loading and delivery. The company has laid out segments such as consumer batteries, TWS batteries, power / energy storage batteries and solid-state batteries. In 2021, the company’s revenue of lithium battery series products was 2.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 59.5%, accounting for 18.1%. The 5gwh solid-state lithium battery production base in Xinyu, Jiangxi Province was put into operation in January 2022. The first batch of Dongfeng E70 electric vehicles equipped with Ganfeng solid-state batteries were also officially delivered, taking a leading position in the commercialization process of solid-state batteries. With the new project of Chongqing 10gwh lithium battery put into operation, its contribution to the company’s profit is expected to increase.
Layout of battery recycling business, with iron lithium recycling ranking first in China. Recycling technology, a wholly-owned subsidiary, has been listed in the second batch of industry standard conditions for the comprehensive utilization of waste power batteries for new energy vehicles issued by the Ministry of industry and information technology. In 2021, recycling technology has built China’s largest green recycling system for retired lithium batteries, forming a recycling capacity of 34000 tons for the disassembly of retired lithium batteries and the comprehensive recovery of metals. The recycling rate of retired lithium iron phosphate batteries ranks first in China, Retired ternary lithium battery recycling has the top three market share in China.
[investment suggestions]
Lithium price remains at a high level, the company has sufficient resource reserves, and accelerates the release of lithium ore output (we expect that in 22-25 years, the output of lithium ore with its own equity will be 50000, 90000, 150000 and 200000 tons respectively), leading the development of solid-state battery industry. We expect that the high growth trend of the company’s profit is expected to continue. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 16.2 billion yuan, 21.5 billion yuan and 23.6 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 11.2 yuan, 14.9 yuan and 16.4 yuan respectively, The corresponding PE is 11.4 times, 8.6 times and 7.8 times respectively. Since the valuation of the company is significantly lower than that of other links in the lithium battery industry chain, and the company has clear growth and outstanding competitiveness, we give a “overweight” rating.
[risk tips]
The production progress of the project is less than expected
Administrative intervention lithium price
Geopolitical risk
