\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 812 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) )
The booming production and marketing drive the volume and profit to rise simultaneously, and the follow-up is expected to continue to grow at a high level
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 7.982 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 86.37%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 159.17%. Benefiting from the large volume of downstream power batteries and the company’s high product power, the company shipped more than 3 billion square meters in the whole year; The gross profit margin was 49.86%, year-on-year + 7.23pct, and 53.07% in 2021q4, month on month + 3.10pct, mainly benefiting from the continuous optimization of product structure and scale effect. We believe that the company is expected to maintain the trend of both volume and profit under the tight balance of market supply and demand. We raised the profit forecast for 2022 / 2023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to reach 5.286 (+ 4.24) / 7.198 (+ 6.29) / 9.274 billion yuan, EPS is 5.92/8.07/10.39 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio of the current stock price is 34.0/25.0/19.4 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Continuous optimization of product structure, rapid expansion of production, lock in high-quality production capacity and consolidate barriers to competition
Increase of coating proportion: the company is the leader of wet diaphragm in the world. In recent years, the proportion of coating film in the shipping structure has continued to increase. We believe that the proportion of coating film shipping of the company is expected to exceed 40% in 2022, so as to further enhance the profitability of products. Moreover, the company has mastered and continued to implement the exclusive technology of online coating, which has significantly reduced costs and increased efficiency; Lock in core equipment: by the end of 2022, the company’s production capacity is expected to reach 7 billion square meters, with a new production capacity of more than 2 billion square meters, mainly due to the promotion of production expansion in Chongqing base; The diaphragm equipment of the company mainly comes from Japan Steel Institute, and the production capacity delivery cycle is more than 15 months. The rapid expansion of production and locking in the upstream high-quality production capacity will help the company further grasp the market increment and consolidate the barriers to competition under the tight balance between supply and demand.
Rely on high-quality customers to consolidate the leading position, strengthen R & D layout and grasp growth opportunities
Binding core customers: the company has covered domestic and foreign battery manufacturers, and the large-scale gain of large customers is remarkable. It has signed billion level warranty agreements with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , China Innovation airlines, ultiumcells, etc. at the same time, it has established joint ventures with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , etc., so as to ensure the market share of the company, improve the driving force of cost reduction and efficiency increase, and consolidate its leading position; Strengthen R & D: the company has a comprehensive R & D layout, mainly covering large cylindrical battery diaphragm, PVDF coating for power, and 4 μ M ultra thin diaphragm, aluminum plastic film and other emerging high potential products, and some projects have achieved mass production and shipment; It helps the company keep up with the changing direction of new technology, explore new business areas and grasp growth opportunities.
Risk tip: the global sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the company’s production expansion progress is lower than expected
