\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 613 Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) )
The leading position of industrial Internet continued to be consolidated and the "buy" rating was maintained
The company's growth logic continues to be verified. Considering that the company's performance continues to exceed expectations, we raised the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 976 million and 1.540 billion yuan (the original forecast was 930 million and 1.418 billion yuan), the forecast of the new company in 2024 to 2.346 billion yuan, and EPS to 284, 4.48 and 6.82 yuan / share. The current stock price corresponds to 37.5, 23.8 and 15.6 times of PE from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The performance met expectations and Q4 gross profit margin increased significantly
(1) the company achieved an operating revenue of 37.230 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 116.98%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 578 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89.97%. (2) The company's net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 271 million, a year-on-year decrease of 65.08%, of which the net cash flow from operating activities in Q4 in a single quarter was RMB -386 million, mainly due to: first, in order to cope with the supply impact outside China, ensure the delivery of a large number of orders accumulated in the double ten e-commerce Festival and fully prepare the order plan for 2022q1, Q4 increased by 690 million compared with the company's advance payment at the end of Q3; Second, due to the influence of dual control factors and the customer support strategy implemented by the company in stages, the contract liabilities of the company at the end of Q4 increased by only 104 million compared with Q3, resulting in a significant decline in Q4 operating cash flow. (3) The gross profit margin of the company's sales was 3.26%, down 0.19 percentage points year-on-year. In particular, the gross profit margin of Q4 reached 3.34%, up 1.04 percentage points year-on-year. The company's sales expense rate and management expense rate decreased by 0.04 and 0.08 percentage points respectively, and the R & D expense rate increased by 0.01 percentage points.
Penetration improvement + category expansion, and the logic of long-term growth is smooth
(1) on the one hand, according to the company's annual report, the category market involved is expanding day by day, with a total of more than 4 trillion (incomplete). With the rapid growth of self operated trading volume of Duoduo e-commerce, the market penetration increased. The overall penetration rate was about 1.02% in 2021, significantly higher than 0.47% in 2020, but on the whole, there is still much room for improvement. On the other hand, the number of registered / active / trading users of Duoduo e-commerce has achieved rapid growth, which has laid a good foundation for the improvement of penetration. (2) The category expansion strategy of Duoduo platform is mainly vertical and horizontal. First, the category expansion of the existing Duoduo platform: from a single category to the deep supply chain, and from a single category to the customer value chain; Second, horizontal replication incubates new Duoduo platforms.
Risk warning: market competition intensifies; The expansion of new categories was less than expected.
