\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 997 Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) )
Event overview
The company announced: preliminary data show that grammer's profitability in the first quarter of 2022 is significantly lower than that in the same period last year, with an EBIT loss of about 1 million euros (a profit of 22.6 million euros in the same period last year) and an operating EBIT loss of about 2.5 million euros (a profit of 21 million euros in the same period last year). According to preliminary statistics, grammer's sales in the first quarter were slightly higher than that in the same period last year (503.7 million euros in the same period last year), so it was basically in line with expectations.
Analysis and judgment:
Grammer's performance is better than expected, waiting for the suppression factors to ease
Grammer expects that the sales volume of 2022q1 will increase slightly year-on-year (500 million euros in the same period last year, equivalent to 3.46 billion yuan), and the EBIT will lose about 1 million euros (equivalent to about 6.92 million yuan), which is improved compared with the profit of 22.6 million euros (equivalent to about 160 million yuan) in the same period last year, compared with the loss of 75 billion euros (equivalent to about 51.9 million yuan) in 2021q4, The operating EBIT loss was about 2.5 million euros (about 17.3 million yuan). Compared with the profit of 21 million euros (about 150 million yuan) in the same period last year, the loss of 79 billion euros (about 54.66 million yuan) in 2021q4 was improved. The year-on-year decline in profitability was mainly affected by the rise of raw materials, energy prices and shipping charges, the shutdown and core shortage in China caused by the epidemic. If the one-time special freight of about 4 million euros in the Americas is added back, it will achieve a small profit, which is better than the market expectation and reflects the effect of integration. With the gradual easing of repressive factors, it will have high repair flexibility.
Breakthrough in domestic replacement of passenger car seats from 0 to 1
In October 2021, the company obtained the fixed point of the passenger car seat project of a new power brand main engine factory, which is a breakthrough from 0 to 1. We expect that the value of a single car will increase from Shenzhen Jt Automation Equipment Co.Ltd(300400) yuan (headrest + armrest, tier2) to 5000 yuan (seat assembly, Tier1). Due to high technical barriers, passenger car seats have long been monopolized by Andorra, Lear and other foreign suppliers. The company is the leader in the subdivision of seat headrests in the world. We estimate that the global market share is more than 25%, reflecting strong cost control ability. It is expected that in the future, it is expected to accelerate the share in the field of passenger car seats and open up growth space by virtue of cost performance and rapid response ability.
Comprehensive coordination refers to the global intelligent cockpit leader
Jifeng Group acquired grammer, Germany, in 2018, completed the delivery in 2019 and began the consolidation in Q4, 2019and started the comprehensive integration in 2020, including the adjustment of grammer's organizational structure, multiple measures to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the layout integration of production base, which highlighted the improvement of operation. At the same time, grammer and Jifeng jointly explore the market, enable products and customers to import each other, and jointly improve the market share. Facing the Centennial revolution of Electric Intelligence in the automotive industry, the company actively embraces and expands new intelligent products such as passenger car seats, audio headrests, mobile central control system and armrests, 3dclass glass technology, vertically arranges smart home heavy truck cockpit, electric air outlet, etc., and breaks through new forces of car making such as Tesla, velai and ideal, In the long run, "dajifeng" is expected to give full play to grammer's century old technical advantages such as seats and Jifeng's flexible mechanism of private enterprises to impact the trillion yuan market of intelligent cockpit and point to the global leader.
Investment advice
The integration effect is becoming more and more obvious, and the expansion of new products and new customers is accelerated. Dajifeng (Jifeng + grammer) is expected to become the leader of global intelligent cockpit in the future. Maintain profit forecast: maintain the revenue of 19.52/23.51/26.89 billion yuan in 202224, the net profit attributable to the parent company is 5.2/8.2/1.08 billion yuan, and the EPS is 0.47/0.73/0.96 yuan, corresponding to pe16 / 10 / 8 times of the closing price of 7.62 yuan on April 12, 2022, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The sales volume of passenger car industry is lower than expected; The progress of integration is less than expected; Customer expansion is not as expected; Industry competition intensifies; Increase of raw material cost, etc.
