\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 572 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 10.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.59%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 123 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 89.72%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Key investment points
The revenue growth rate continued to rise month on month in 21 years, and the provision of 21q4 Evergrande caused the decline of annual net profit. On the revenue side, the company’s revenue exceeded the 10 billion mark in 2021, realizing a revenue of 10.407 billion yuan / + 24.59%, with a growth rate of 16 PCT higher than that in 2020. On a quarterly basis, 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 achieved revenue of 1.76 billion yuan, 2.54 billion yuan, 2.94 billion yuan and 3.16 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 130.6% / + 41.8% / + 15.9% / – 2.9%. The decline in revenue in the fourth quarter was judged as the impact of shrinking Evergrande’s bulk business. 21q4 achieved revenue of 450 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 41.9%. It is estimated that 21q4’s retail business achieved revenue of 2.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. On the net profit side, 21q4 company made provision for asset impairment of 909 million yuan corresponding to the amount received from Evergrande group, resulting in a year-on-year decline of 89.72% to 123 million yuan in the annual net profit attributable to the parent company, of which the net loss of 21q4 was 730 million yuan. Excluding the impact of bad debt provision, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years and 21q4 were 1.03 billion yuan and 180 million yuan respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5% and 63.1%.
Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) customized wardrobe increased in volume and price, and the unit price of simi cabinet decreased slightly. In terms of products, in 2021, the company’s wardrobe and its supporting products, cabinet and its accessories, wooden doors and other main businesses achieved revenue of RMB 8.27 billion, 1.42 billion, 460 million and 200 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, 17.3%, 56.9% and 75.2%. Wardrobe is still the largest revenue of the company, accounting for 79.5%. In 2021, the customer unit price of Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) wardrobe increased quarter by quarter. By the end of 21, the customer unit price of Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) factory was 14491 yuan / unit, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year compared with 13095 yuan in 2020. Cabinets are the second largest revenue of the company, accounting for 13.6%, which is slightly lower than that of the previous year by 0.9pct. In terms of split volume and price, the sales volume of cabinets of the company increased by 38.5% year-on-year in 2021, and the average sales unit price decreased by 15.4% year-on-year. In 2021, the revenue of wooden doors accounted for 4.4%, with a year-on-year increase of about 1PCT. Floor and other main business income accounted for 0.6%.
In the 21st year, milanna quickly expanded its stores to seize the mass market, and the whole decoration channel performed brilliantly. In terms of sub channels, 1) in terms of dealer channels, the company achieved a revenue of 8.36 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 28.0%, accounting for 80.3%. By the end of 21, the company had 2730 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) stores, 1122 Simi stores, 265 Huahe wooden door stores, 1338 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) wooden door stores (including exclusive stores and integrated stores), and Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) wardrobe, Simi cabinet The number of Huahe wooden door stores has increased steadily (a net increase of 11, 14 and 22 respectively compared with the beginning of the year). The number of milanna stores, its internet light fashion custom home brand, has increased rapidly. By the end of 21, there were 212 milanna stores, a net increase of 103 compared with the end of 21q3. 2) In terms of direct channels, the revenue in 2021 was 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.9%, accounting for 3.3%. 3) In terms of bulk channels, in 2021, the company’s bulk business continued to optimize the customer structure and pay attention to the customer’s ability to pay. The annual revenue was 1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. 4) In terms of packaging channels, the company began to cooperate with packaging enterprises in 2019 to layout the packaging business. In 2021, the revenue of the packaging business was 529 million yuan, a significant increase compared with 70 million yuan in the same period of 20 years, of which 21h1, 21q3 and Q4 achieved 135 million yuan, 178 million yuan and 216 million yuan respectively, and the packaging business developed rapidly.
The gross profit margin is under pressure due to the rise of raw materials and other factors, and the cost is well controlled. In terms of profitability, in 2021, the gross profit margin of the company decreased by 3.4pct to 33.2% year-on-year, of which the wardrobe decreased by 4.7pct to 35.7% year-on-year, and the cabinets and wooden doors increased by 3.6 and 2.6pct to 26.3% and 17.1% year-on-year; The decline of the company’s profitability is mainly due to: 1) the price of raw materials such as wood and hardware has increased since 21h2, but the sales price of the company’s products has not been adjusted synchronously; 2) The substantial increase of product SKU in a short period of time, as well as the direct packaging and Milana operation have led to the reduction of production efficiency. In terms of expense rate, in 2021, the company’s total expense rate increased by 0.8pct during the period, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 9.7%, 7.0%, 2.8% and 0.7% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.5, – 0.3, + 0.3 and + 0.2pct. After the epidemic stabilized, the company’s sales expense rate returned to normal. The increase of financial expense rate was due to the increase of the company’s bill discount business and bank loans, and the net interest rate of the company in 2021 was 1.5% under the combined influence of adding bad debt provision, A year-on-year decline of 13.2pct. In terms of inventory, as of the end of the year, the company’s inventory was 740 million yuan, and the inventory turnover days were 32 days, an increase of 4 days year-on-year. In terms of cash flow, in 2021, the net cash flow from operating activities of the company was 1.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%.
We made efforts to customize the whole company and expected the customer unit price to increase again. Under the expectation of steady growth, the downward pressure on valuation weakened. In December of 21, the company wedged the “whole customization” into the brand positioning. In February of 22, Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) officially released 39800 whole customization packages with the package design idea of “all categories, all rigid needs, all brands and real benefits”, covering clothing / cabinet / background wall customization, software finished furniture and kitchen appliances, so as to provide consumers with more complete home space solutions. The end-user unit price of Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) factory in 21 years is 14491 yuan. Assuming that the profit rate of channel end is 50%, it is estimated that the retail end-user unit price is nearly 29000 yuan. According to the C6 plan goal of the company, the retail end-user unit price can be improved by promoting the whole category. In terms of valuation, affected by the real estate industry, the company’s valuation began to fall from the high level in April 21. At present, pe-ttm is about 14 times, 16% in the past three years. Under the expectation of steady growth, the downward pressure on the company’s valuation is weakened.
Investment suggestion: in 21 years, the impairment risk of the company’s bulk business was released, and 22 young people took up the battle to force the whole business. We predict that the company’s earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.51 yuan, 1.86 yuan and 2.18 yuan respectively, which corresponds to 13.5 times of the company’s PE in 22 years. It will be covered for the first time, and “buy-b” suggestions will be given.
Risk warning: the completion and sales data of commercial housing are not as expected; Industry competition intensifies; The shop opening progress is not as expected; Risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
