\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 271 Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) )
Revenue maintained high growth, contrarian growth, highlighting the leading competitiveness
On the evening of April 11, the company released its annual report for 21 years. In the 21 years, the company achieved revenue of 31.93 billion yuan, yoy + 47.0%, net profit attributable to parent company of 4.21 billion yuan, yoy + 24.1%, deducting the growth rate of non attributable net profit of 25.1%. The performance slightly exceeded the previous performance express value. 21q4 achieved revenue of 9.25 billion yuan, yoy + 37.0%, and net profit attributable to parent company of 1.53 billion yuan, yoy + 21.3%, We judge that the high growth of income is mainly due to the sinking of channels and the accelerated expansion of multiple categories. 21h2 waterproof industry is affected by the sharp decline of new real estate construction. We judge that the recovery of the follow-up real estate policy is expected to gradually transform to the fundamental side. From 22q2, the front-end data of real estate or hit the bottom. At the same time, the new waterproof regulations are approaching the ground, and the rapid growth of roof photovoltaic is also expected to bring new increment. We continue to be optimistic about the leading position and diversified layout of the company.
Civil construction group exceeded expectations, and the price increase is expected to transmit cost pressure
In the past 21 years, the revenue of waterproof coiled material / coating / construction / others reached 156.7/98.2/40.3/1.4 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 40.0% / + 63.3% / + 21.9% / + 26.5% respectively. The volume of building coatings, thermal insulation mortar, putty powder and other businesses increased rapidly, and the expansion of various categories continued to exceed expectations. In the past 21 years, the income of China civil construction group reached 3.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 93%. In the past 21 years, the sales volume of waterproof materials reached 1.53 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of + 51.2%. The leading advantage was significant. The proportion of the revenue of the top five customers in the first 21 years continued to decline by 3.4pct to 14.2%. In the past 21 years, the gross profit margin of the company’s sales was 30.5%, with a year-on-year increase of – 6.5pct, of which the gross profit margin of coiled material / coating / construction was – 8.1 / – 7.1 / – 0.1pct year-on-year. The price of raw materials such as asphalt increased significantly, which affected the increase of gross profit margin. From March 16, the price of the company’s main products such as coiled material and coating was adjusted by 10% ~ 20%. We believe that the price increase is expected to transmit the cost pressure and achieve the business goal with high quality throughout the year.
Cash flow continued to improve and the ability to control expenses was further enhanced
In 21 years, the net operating cash flow reached 4.115 billion yuan, with a year-on-year ratio of – 3.99pct to 111.4% and a year-on-year ratio of – 8.2pct to 115.2%. The decline of the cash payment ratio led to the improvement of operating cash flow. In 21 years, the company’s accounts receivable (including bills) increased by + 36.2% year-on-year, which was significantly lower than the income growth rate, led to the decline of the turnover days of accounts receivable and the obvious improvement of business quality. At the end of the year, other receivables amounted to 880 million yuan, a significant decrease compared with 4.04 billion yuan at the end of 21q3. During the 21-year period, the expense rate was 14.6%, with a year-on-year rate of -3.3pct, of which the expense rates of sales / management / R & D / finance were -1.29 / – 0.65 / – 0.38 / – 1.02pct respectively year-on-year. The net interest rate of the company in the 21st year was 13.2%, with a year-on-year increase of -2.4pct. The pressure on the raw material side eroded the profitability. The diversified layout continued to be promoted and the “buy” rating was maintained
We believe that with the increasing concentration of downstream customers and the strengthening of superimposed brand, service, channel and cost advantages, the market share of the company in the waterproof industry is expected to continue to increase. At the same time, the company is also in the forefront of the industry in terms of diversified business layout such as civil building materials, coatings, thermal insulation, mortar, repair and new energy. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years is predicted to be 5.28/65.0/7.98 billion yuan. Referring to the average PE of 19.3 times of the comparable company in 22 years, considering the leading position of the company and the rapid volume of new business, we recognize and give the company 30 times PE in 22 years, the target price is 63.0 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the new construction of real estate is significantly lower than expected, the oil and asphalt prices rebound sharply, and the cash flow deteriorates sharply.
