\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 72 Shenzhen Anche Technologies Co.Ltd(300572) )
Core view
The company is the main provider of overall solutions in the field of motor vehicle testing in China, cutting into the large market of operation services from equipment. In the short term, the industry experienced a cold winter in 2021, but in the medium and long term, we believe that the company's business has ushered in an inflection point.
Core view
High asset quality and oversold in the short term: as the leader of China's vehicle inspection equipment, the company has continued to enter the motor vehicle inspection service industry since 18 years. Affected by policy changes, corporate profits decreased significantly in 2021. However, the company's gross profit margin of 48% in 21q3 is still higher than the historical level. At the end of September 21, the company's currency, cash and trading financial assets reached 1.57 billion yuan, and the asset liability ratio was 18%. On the whole, it has high asset quality.
The vehicle inspection service will send off the cold winter and usher in spring. Although the industry is in a cold winter in 2021, from the perspective of the development law of environmental protection and safety, the requirements of vehicle detection will continue to improve, and the industry will continue to develop. Compared with overseas developed countries, the density of vehicle inspection stations in China is still low, the frequency of vehicle inspection is still low, and the content of inspection needs to be enriched. There is still much room to improve the scale of the industry in the future.
There is a big market for testing services, and the industry is expected to be a giant. According to the model calculation, we believe that with the increase of vehicle ownership, the testing service market is expected to reach 70 billion yuan in 2025, but the industry is still in a scattered and chaotic pattern. There are regional giants in overseas mature markets, such as Dekai in Europe. We believe that with the maturity of the Chinese market, the vehicle inspection market will also produce leading enterprises with a high share.
Carry out new energy business and open up new market space: the company won the bid for the public charging pile project and fully demonstrated the combination strength of software and hardware. At the same time, the company also reached strategic cooperation with times electric service in the same period, and will explore cooperation opportunities in the fields of power exchange and related business site space sharing, operation and maintenance of power exchange station, promotion and sales of electric vehicles, R & D and manufacturing of power exchange equipment, etc. We believe that the cooperation between anche and Shidai electric service is expected to achieve a win-win effect. While promoting the power exchange mode, we can realize the flow integration and continuous growth of both sides.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We predict that the company's earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.05 yuan, 0.70 yuan and 0.92 yuan respectively. Based on the consistent expectation of Chaoyang sustainability, the adjusted average p / E ratio of comparable companies in 2022 is about 33xpe. We give Shenzhen Anche Technologies Co.Ltd(300572) 2022 33xpe with a target price of 23.10 yuan, and give a buy rating for the first time.
Risk tips
Adverse changes in industrial policies, the expansion of testing stations is less than expected, the operation management is less than expected, the operation of replacement power stations is less than expected, the sustainability of charging pile project is less than expected, and changes in hypothetical conditions such as testing times and unit price affect the calculation results.
