\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 48 He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.524 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35.65%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 570 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31.77%. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 670 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 39.48%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 169 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.15%. Performance exceeded expectations.
Channel intensive cultivation and team transformation have boosted the rapid growth of revenue. On the revenue side, by product, the revenue of almond dew series / nut walnut series / other products was RMB 2.472/0.49/0.03 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 33.84% / + 300.78% / + 95.44%, accounting for 97.95% / 1.95% / 0.10%. The rapid growth of the company’s revenue in 21 years is related to the low base in 20 years on the one hand; On the other hand, after 21 years of management transformation, the company has vigorously promoted the intensive cultivation and sinking of channels, strengthened the development of blank markets and blank channels, and improved the market share of terminals. The number of distributors in the North / central / other regions of the company at the end of the period was 459 / 75 / 51 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.77% / 5.63% / 54.55%. The distribution of channel outlets was strengthened through distributors. Compared with 19 years ago, the company’s revenue also recorded an increase of 11.91%, and the effect of channel reform was obvious. In addition, the company has supplemented the FMCG industry talents, and the overall FMCG operation experience of the team has been further improved. Looking forward to 22 years, with the continuous R & D and launch of the company’s new products, on the one hand, the company will explore the markets in East China and southwest China to realize new market development; On the other hand, we will continue to tap the potential of the existing advantageous market, improve the market share of products and the number of terminal outlets, promote the development of blank channels, and focus on the development of campus, station, banquet, catering and group purchase channels. We expect the company to maintain rapid growth in 22 years.
The cost-effectiveness was improved, precise investment was made, and the net interest rate remained at a high level. On the profit side, the gross profit margin of the company’s sales in 21 years is 46.79%, and the net profit margin of sales is 22.51%. The overall net profit margin remains at a high level. We believe that the main reasons include: 1) the company’s product positioning the gift market, and the gross profit margin is high; 2) The company’s products are in large quantities, and the cost-effectiveness is significantly improved; 3) The company’s expense investment is relatively accurate and does not invest in advertising in a large area. The company’s sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 15.29% / 1.67% / 0.75% / – 1.61% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.1 / – 1.23 / + 0.16 / + 0.13pcts. Looking forward to 22 years, the cost of tinsector may rise. The company still has inventory, but the cost pressure may increase gradually. On the other hand, the introduction of new products or increase the cost investment. But overall, with the improvement of sales, the profit side is still expected to maintain rapid growth.
Intensive market development, expansion of consumption scene and expansion of consumption level open up long-term space. In the past 21 years, the company’s management improvement and channel reform have been gradually promoted. In the past 22 years, it is expected to further release the potential energy of reform on the basis of 21 years. 1) continue to promote the deep cultivation of the existing market and increase market development; 2) The new low sugar version meets the taste needs of Southern consumer groups, and carries out investment promotion and distribution in new markets; The quality of almond + and almond milk series is upgraded to meet diversified consumer demand. We expect the company to achieve double-digit growth throughout the year. In the long run, we believe that the value improvement of the company mainly comes from the gift giving positioning of the company’s categories from small scenes to daily consumption positioning. The expansion of the overall consumption level opens up long-term space and is optimistic about the future development of the company.
Profit forecast: due to the disclosure of the company’s annual report, the profit forecast is updated. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in the 22-23 years will be reduced from RMB 3.182/3.937 billion to RMB 3.037/3.603 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 20.34%/18.63%. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be reduced from RMB 6.74/8.64 to RMB 6.47/778million, with a year-on-year increase of 13.60%/20.20%, and EPS will be RMB 0.60/0.72 respectively, maintaining the company’s “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the product structure is relatively single, the development of the southern market is less than expected, and the impact of the epidemic situation.
