\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 557 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) )
In 2021, the government will end smoothly, and the price increase bonus will initially appear
In 2021, the revenue was 5.985 billion yuan (with an increase of 13.15%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 929 million yuan (with an increase of 15.35%), and the non net profit deducted was 799 million yuan (with an increase of 15.95%). It is basically consistent with the previous performance express. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 2.103 billion yuan (with an increase of 28.33%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 334 million yuan (with an increase of 21.46%). The gross profit margin in 2021 was 31.95% (with an increase of 0.06 PCT), of which 2021q4 was 33.43% (with an increase of 5.23 PCT), which was caused by the company’s price increase on sunflower seeds and other products in the middle and late October of last year; The net interest rate in 2021 was 15.53% (with an increase of 0.31pct), of which 2021q4 was 15.9% (with a decrease of 0.9pct), which was caused by the increase of expenses in the fourth quarter.
At the end of 2021, the contract liabilities were 214 million yuan, an increase of 115 million yuan month on month. In 2021, the net cash flow from operating activities was 1.345 billion yuan (an increase of 125%), of which 6.544 billion yuan (an increase of 11%) was received from the sale of goods and the provision of labor services. In 2021, the investment income was 34 million yuan, accounting for 3% of the total profit, which was caused by the income of bank financial management.
The small yellow bag has become one billion pieces, with both volume and price rising throughout the year
In terms of products, the revenue of sunflower seeds in 2021 was 3.943 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9% at the same time, accounting for 65.9%; Nuts amounted to 1.366 billion yuan, an increase of 44% at the same time, accounting for 23% (an increase of 5pct at the same time). The annual sales of nuts in small yellow bags are nearly 1 billion yuan, the annual sales of probiotic products in small blue bags are more than 100 million yuan, and the annual sales of nuts and oatmeal are more than 100 million yuan. The revenue of other categories was 675 million yuan, an increase of 10% at the same time, accounting for 11%.
In terms of subregions, the revenue of the southern region in 2021 was 1.935 billion yuan, an increase of 3.6% at the same time, accounting for 32%; The northern region was 1.213 billion yuan, an increase of 22% at the same time, accounting for 20%; Dongfang district was 1.612 billion yuan, an increase of 19% at the same time, accounting for 27%; E-commerce was 570 million yuan, an increase of 11% at the same time, accounting for 10%; Overseas 518 million yuan, an increase of 10%, accounting for 9%.
According to different channels, the direct sales in 2021 was 920 million yuan, an increase of 6% at the same time, accounting for 15%; Distribution and other channels reached 5.065 billion yuan, an increase of 14% at the same time, accounting for 85%. By the end of 2021, the company had more than 1000 dealers, including more than 980 dealers and customers in China and more than 50 dealers and customers abroad. At present, the company has set up production bases in Hefei, Harbin, Baotou, Fuyang, Chongqing, Changsha, Chuzhou and Thailand. The company actively promoted the channel intensive cultivation strategy. The channel digital platform controlled nearly 120000 terminal outlets, empowered high-quality dealers, trained business partners, and gradually increased the distribution rate of intensive cultivation market, store activity rate and monthly per capita output. From the perspective of volume and price, the sales volume in 2021 was 223400 tons, an increase of 9.5% at the same time; The corresponding price is 26800 yuan / ton, with an increase of 3.5%.
Strengthen the mind of consumers and work together with products and channels
Brand side: the company continues to strengthen the publicity and popularization of nuts and melon seeds nutrition and health, position nuts as daily nutritional necessities, increase the advantage publicity of “quality manufacturing” and build the brand awareness of nut experts.
Product side: the headquarters, business units and business units (BU) continue to focus on nut snack food and main channel categories around the strategic objectives and business plans, follow the principle of “one of the best” and occupy a leading position in the market; Create the first high-end brand of “kuizhen” sunflower seeds and seize the market share; Create classic red bag and blue bag series of new products, continuously extend the flavor, and launch new flavors such as rattan pepper melon seeds, sea melon seeds and orange peel melon seeds, so as to strengthen the core competitiveness of national sunflower products.
Channel side: the company accelerated the intensive cultivation of channels, expanded online channels and new channels simultaneously, and realized the development of all channels. Choose differentiated products and differentiated marketing schemes to promote the promotion of vulnerable markets and the penetration of county and township channels, so as to seize the market share; Match new scenes, adhere to channel innovation, strengthen and promote new channels such as to-b channel, catering channel and community group purchase, and achieve innovation breakthroughs.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the efficiency improvement after the adjustment of the company’s organizational structure and the further release of the company’s performance through the combination of new products and channels. It is expected that the EPS will be 2.15/2.48/2.84 yuan from 2022 to 2024, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 26 / 23 / 20 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, the epidemic dragged down consumption, melon seed growth rate was lower than expected, nut growth rate was lower than expected, peak season sales were lower than expected, internal reform was lower than expected, etc.
