\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 812 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) )
Outstanding performance in 21 years. On April 11, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. The annual revenue was 7.982 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 86.37%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.718 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 143.60%. After deduction, the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.567 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.17%. In Q4 of 21 years, the company achieved a revenue of 2.643 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.34%, a month on month increase of 35.89%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 955 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.28%, a month on month increase of 35.42%, and a net profit after deduction of non-profit of 987 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.94% and a month on month increase of 53.05%.
22q1 profitability remained stable. On April 11, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. The company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 865950 million yuan in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 100.19% – 119.86%, and deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 835920 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 106.20% – 127.19%. The performance is basically the same as that of Q4 in 21 years. After deducting the impact of relevant bonuses, we expect the single average net profit in the first quarter to exceed 0.9 yuan / average, which is basically the same month on month.
Global layout to accelerate capacity expansion. The company’s global production capacity layout has laid out production bases in Shanghai, Wuxi, Jiangxi, Zhuhai, Suzhou, Changzhou, Chongqing and other places, and built overseas bases in Hungary, with a production capacity of more than 5 billion square meters in 21 years. In the second half of the year, the company and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) jointly invested and built the diaphragm project, with an investment amount of 8 billion yuan. In August of the year, the company and Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) jointly built the diaphragm project with an annual production capacity of 1.6 billion square meters, with an investment amount of 5.2 billion yuan. It is estimated that the planned production capacity of the company will exceed 10 billion square meters in 23 years. In 2021, the company’s diaphragm shipments will be about 3 billion square meters. We expect that the company’s diaphragm shipments will be about 5 billion square meters in 22 years and is expected to achieve a delivery capacity of 7 billion square meters in 23 years.
Sign a supply agreement to lock in high-quality customers. In December 21, Ningde used the advance payment to guarantee the diaphragm supply for 22 years, with an amount of about 5.18 billion yuan; In January 22, the company signed a guarantee agreement with China Innovation airlines, with an amount of about 2.5 billion yuan; In January 22, the company signed a production pricing contract with a large overseas automobile enterprise, which agreed that the supply quantity in 22-24 years should not exceed 1.65 billion square meters; In June, the company signed a contract with ultium cells, LLC, with a purchase amount of more than US $258 million; In May 19, the company signed a purchase and sales contract with LG Chem, Ltd. the contract amount did not exceed US $617 million, and the contract period was 5 years. The company has signed strategic cooperation agreements with global high-quality enterprises, with high certainty of future demand, further consolidating its leading position.
The application of online coating technology enhances the profitability. Cost side: the company has full production and sales, with significant scale effect. In addition, the company’s coating technology production line has been officially applied to reduce the winding, slitting and other processes before coating, so as to reduce costs and increase efficiency; Price side: the diaphragm industry has high equipment barriers, long production expansion cycle, the tight balance between supply and demand continues, and the price is expected to rise generally; Product structure: the application of on-line coating technology is expected to drive the rapid increase of the proportion of coated diaphragm.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 4.714 billion, RMB 6.808 billion and RMB 8.973 billion, with the same increase of 73.4%, 44.4% and 31.8%. The current share price corresponds to 38, 26 and 20 times of PE from 2022 to 2024 respectively. Considering that the diaphragm is a high-quality track, the leading position of the company is stable and the “recommended” rating is maintained.
Risk tip: the sales volume of terminal new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The speed of production expansion is lower than expected
