\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 352 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) )
Event:
S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022: in 2022q1, the company turned losses into profits compared with the same period of the previous year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 950-1.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 196% – 211%; It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company is 850 million yuan to 1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 175% – 188%.
S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) released the operation briefing of express logistics business in March: in March 2022, SF express logistics business achieved a revenue of 12.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.87%, completed a business volume of 803 million tickets, a year-on-year decrease of 7.91%, and a single ticket revenue of 15.52 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.24%.
In 2022q1, SF express logistics business achieved a revenue of 39.592 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.68%, completed a business volume of 2.43 billion tickets, a year-on-year decrease of 1.50%, and a single ticket revenue of 16.29 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.25%.
Key investment points:
Product structure was optimized, cost control continued to be promoted, and Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations
In 2022q1, under the influence of the low prosperity of the macro environment and the frequent outbreak of the epidemic in March, SF still achieved a net profit of 950-1.1 billion yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year, and its operation slightly exceeded expectations. There are three main reasons:
① SF actively optimizes the product structure and reduces the number of products with low gross profit;
② continue to promote the integration of four networks, strengthen the integration of site and line resources, and the resource coordination across business sectors during the Spring Festival. Adhere to refined cost control. With the continuous climbing of capacity utilization, SF cost optimization has begun to take effect;
③ business profitability improved, new businesses reduced losses year-on-year, and consolidated the performance of Kerry Logistics to increase profits again.
The closure of the epidemic affects short-term operation, but the demand is expected to rebound rapidly after loose control
In March 2022, SF’s business volume decreased by 7.91% year-on-year to 803 million tickets. The frequent outbreak of the epidemic has put pressure on the business growth of express enterprises. On the supply side, the local epidemic has impacted the dispatch link of express delivery, and the performance ability of all enterprises is limited. However, as the government gradually attaches importance to the stability of the supply chain and creates a loose environment for the full restoration of logistics operation, the logistics operators will be gradually liberalized, and the express industry will return to the right track. On the demand side, with the liberalization of epidemic control and the restoration of smooth logistics chain, online shopping demand will be released, retaliatory consumption may occur, and the backlog of express demand is expected to rebound rapidly.
From brand collaboration to business collaboration, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) is optimistic about the prominent option value of new business for a long time
In 2022, under the business strategy of continuously focusing on the core logistics field and emphasizing steady development and healthy profits, SF’s performance in the first quarter has initially reflected the effect of strategic adjustment. On the basis of continuously building the moat of time effective parts, SF has carried out multi track layout through brand coordination. Therefore, the scale of new businesses such as express, e-commerce express, international and the same city has expanded rapidly. With the gradual maturity of new business development, all new businesses will enter the period of realization rhythmically, from flow expansion to a new stage of business growth and profit rebalancing. According to the track, at present, high-end Express has a pattern and international tracks have dividends. The more mature express and international business is expected to take the lead in making profits.
In the long run, the landing of Kerry Logistics acquisition has further improved SF’s international layout and the coordinated development of multi business tracks, gradually matured the comprehensive logistics layout and gradually clarified the internationalization road. Brand synergy and business synergy are expected to bring industry-leading scale effect and synergy effect to SF, and SF is optimistic about its leading position and competitive advantage in the comprehensive logistics track for a long time.
The profit forecast and investment rating are adjusted according to the company’s performance forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue of S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) 20222024 will be 264835 billion yuan, 304896 billion yuan and 355705 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 6.558 billion yuan, 8.412 billion yuan and 11.193 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 39.13, 30.51 and 22.92 million yuan respectively. SF stock price has been adjusted for a long time, and the impact of macro and epidemic situation has been fully reflected. It waits for the inflection point of fundamentals to appear and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the growth rate of aging parts is lower than expected, the cost optimization is lower than expected, the macroeconomic growth slows down, the competition of medium and high-end track intensifies, and the M & A integration is lower than expected.
