\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 586 Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) )
Event:
Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) released the annual report of 2021: during the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 6.922 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.72%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.307 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 295.10%.
Key investment points:
The performance is in line with the growth expectation, and the short-term profit is under pressure. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 6.922 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.72%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.307 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 295.10%. In the fourth quarter alone, the revenue was 1.831 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.11%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 60 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.54%. In 2021, the market demand of float glass has obvious phased differences, and the off peak season is abnormal. In the first half of 2021, supported by the delayed demand in 2020, the price rise of processed products is expected to drive the terminal to place orders in advance, and the market is not light in the off-season; In the second half of the year, the shortage of terminal funds led to the obvious delay of the project progress and the low demand season. This has led to a decline in the price of 2021q4 glass and pressure on the company's short-term profits.
The layout of deep-processing products has been deepened, and the advantages of the whole industrial chain have emerged. The daily melting capacity of the original glass of the company is 5800 tons, and the annual production capacity of Low-E energy-saving glass is 20 million square meters (including 10 million square meters of Tengzhou Jinjing, which is expected to be put into operation in the middle of 2022). In terms of photovoltaic glass, the company's production lines in Ningxia and Malaysia have been put into operation. It is expected that the proportion of this business revenue in the company's overall business revenue will increase significantly in 2022. The company has formed a mine / soda ash glass glass deep-processing industrial chain. In the future, with the continuous increase of the proportion of photovoltaic glass, energy-saving glass and deep-processing products, the advantages of the whole industrial chain will become more and more obvious in the future competition.
The price of soda ash has increased steadily, and the industry concentration has increased. Since the beginning of this year, the price of soda ash has gradually rebounded, and the inventory of soda ash has continued to decline. In the future, with the continuous expansion of photovoltaic glass production capacity, the demand for soda ash will increase significantly. It is expected that the market price of soda ash will maintain a high level in the later stage. The main operator of the company's soda ash business is Haitian company, a wholly-owned subsidiary, with an annual production capacity of 1.5 million tons. In addition to meeting the needs of the company's glass sector, all the remaining production capacity is exported. In 2021, the company produced 1.3411 million tons of soda and 220600 tons of baking soda. After the supply side structural reform in recent years, the soda ash industry has withdrawn some backward production capacity, the industrial structure has been further optimized, the development mode has changed from extensive growth in the past to intensive growth in quality and efficiency, and the industry concentration has been improved.
Profit forecast and investment rating. The company has become one of the leading enterprises in the glass industry and soda ash industry, with the advantages of large-scale operation. We predict that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.395 billion yuan, 1.838 billion yuan and 2.14 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.98 yuan, 1.29 yuan and 1.5 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE of 7.63x, 5.79x and 4.97x. The company will be rated as "overweight" for the first time.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; The price is lower than the expected performance of the product; Capacity expansion is less than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply; The epidemic has repeatedly affected the economy; Adverse changes have taken place in the macro environment.
