\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
In the whole year, the company turned losses into profits, and the management income increased significantly: in 21 years, the revenue was 6.153 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent was 56 million yuan, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent was 11 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.49%, 111.23% and 102.08% respectively in 20 years, a year-on-year decrease of 25.97%, 93.67% and 98.65% respectively in 19 years, and eps0.05% 06 yuan. The gross profit margin in the year of 21 was 26.15%, up 13.52pct year-on-year in 20 years and down 67.53pct year-on-year in 19 years, mainly because the company was seriously impacted by covid-19 epidemic in 2020. In 2021, with the mitigation of the epidemic and the company’s active response, the performance gradually recovered and the operating revenue increased compared with the previous year. The financial rate was 8.48%, with a year-on-year increase of 678 PCT over the past 20 years, mainly due to the implementation of the new lease standards, which recognized the debt interest expenditure of 434 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.01 PCT; The sales rate was 5.25%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.62pct in 20 years and 59.75pct in 19 years; The management rate was 11.46%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.19 PCT in 20 years and 0.68 PCT in 19 years, mainly because 2021 was less affected by the epidemic than 2020. In terms of business, the main hotel business benefited from the recovery of the epidemic. The hotel business revenue was 5.832 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 15.97% in 20 years and – 25.82% in 19 years, of which the hotel operation revenue was 4.359 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 12.71% in 20 years and – 30.58% in 19 years; The hotel management revenue was 1.473 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 26.85% in 20 years and – 6.89% in 19 years. The business income of the scenic spot was 321 million, a year-on-year increase of + 26.88% in 20 years and – 28.67% in 19 years.
4q21’s revenue was 1.427 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.32% in 20 years and 31.39% in 19 years; Net profit attributable to the parent company was – 69 million (59 million in 20 years and 127 million in 19 years).
Q4 store expansion speeds up, and the sinking market will continue to develop in the future: 1418 new stores will be opened in 21 years / a net increase of 1021 stores will reach 5916 stores. In Q4, 585 new hotels were opened / a net increase of 461, of which 44 / 91 / 442 / 8 were economy / medium and high-end / light management hotels / other hotels, with medium and high-end accounting for 15.56%; 575 new franchise stores were opened, and the proportion of franchise was further increased. The company plans to open 18002000 new stores in 22 years and accelerate the third to fifth tier sinking market layout. As of December 31, 2021, the number of reserve stores is 1791.
Operating data: 1) q4revpar is 108 yuan / – 17.4%, the average house price is 186 yuan / – 0.4%, and the rental rate is 57.9% / – 11.9pct. Among them, the RevPAR of economical / medium and high-end / light management is 96 / 143 / 68 yuan, the rental rate is 61.6% / 56.9% / 47.4%, and the average house price is 156 / 252 / 144 yuan. 2) Affected by the gradual recovery of China’s tourism market after the epidemic, q4revpar slowed down (- 17.4%) and significantly expanded compared with Q3 (- 0.6%). 3) Same store data: the overall RevPAR of Q4 is 110 yuan / – 19.5%, which is an increase compared with the overall RevPAR of Q3 of 126 yuan / – 3.6%.
All strategies go hand in hand, and the disturbance of the epidemic will not affect the long-term value of the company: the impact of the epidemic in 2022 is expected to be under pressure. In the future, the company will 1) accelerate the opening of stores, deeply cultivate the sinking market, take franchise stores as the main development strategy, and accelerate the expansion of light management mode with cloud brand to meet the needs of the sinking market. 2) Upgrade brands and products, create a diversified product matrix, and establish a young and fashionable brand image. 3) Continue to promote the two wheel drive such as life club and the first global purchase free, and improve the proportion of members to the central reservation system. 4) Accelerate digitization and improve operation efficiency.
Profit forecast and rating: affected by the epidemic, we lowered the net profit of 20222023 by 98% / 80% to 18 million / 226 million respectively, and increased the net profit forecast of 2024 to 540 million. Due to the impact of the epidemic in the short term, the performance is under great pressure and is lowered to the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: franchise expansion is lower than expected; The epidemic control was less than expected.
