\u3000\u30 Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.Ltd(003003) 16 Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) )
Key investment points
Q1 performance in 2022: a year-on-year increase of 42-71%; It is expected that the performance in 2022 is expected to accelerate quarter by quarter
1) according to the announcement of the company. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of 2021 will be RMB 400480 million, with a year-on-year increase of 42% ~ 71% and a month on month decrease of 21% ~ 34%. The net profit after deducting non-profit was 390470 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 61% ~ 94% and a month on month decrease of 20% ~ 34%.
2) the company's Q1 performance in 2022 declined month on month. We expect that it is mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday (reduced working hours) + the impact of the epidemic (slower logistics and longer order confirmation cycle).
3) orders in hand: by 2021, Q3 has reached 17.8 billion. Superimposed with Q4 Gaojing and Shuangliang orders, the orders on hand reached 20.859 billion. In 2021, the company's orders on hand reached a record high, and the performance is expected to continue to grow high in 2022. Looking back on the periodicity of the company's historical performance, the first quarter performance is mostly the season with low annual performance. It is expected that with the passage of time, the confirmation speed of the company's performance is expected to pick up in the next quarter. Don't worry too much about the company's short-term quarterly performance fluctuations.
The market is worried that the growth rate of the company's photovoltaic equipment orders may decline this year. At present, the company's customers have verified well in the field of semiconductor large silicon wafer (8-12 inch) equipment, and its products have covered mainstream equipment in all links. It is expected that in 2022, the company's semiconductor equipment is expected to gradually increase in volume, opening a new growth point for the company's order growth. In the medium and long term, the company's SiC substrate material will become the third pole of the company's growth.
Silicon carbide: 230000 substrate intention contract with an estimated amount of 1.5 billion yuan; With the opening of the global 10 billion market and the second pole of growth, the company has formed a purchase intention with customer a, and will give priority to providing it with no less than 230000 silicon carbide substrates from 2022 to 2025. According to the current price: the purchase amount of 230000 pieces is expected to reach 1.52 billion yuan (including tax). The company plans to build an annual production capacity of 400000 pieces of conductive + insulating silicon carbide substrates with an annual output of more than 6 inches in Yinchuan, Ningxia, and plans to conduct trial production in 2022. At present, the company has established a pilot production line of raw material synthesis + long crystal + cutting, grinding and polishing, and completed the development of 6-8-inch long crystal thermal field and equipment.
Semiconductor equipment: polishing and thinning equipment has been approved by customers with 220 million orders; The business is expected to accelerate in 2022
1) on hand orders: the polishing machine, thinning machine and other equipment of the company have been well verified by the customer, and a total purchase contract of RMB 221million has been formed, including RMB 141million for customer B (8-12 inch thinning and polishing equipment) and RMB 80million for customer B (8-inch polishing line).
2) capacity: it is planned to build an annual capacity of 35 sets of semiconductor material thinning equipment (for silicon wafer manufacturing end and packaging end) and 45 sets of semiconductor material polishing equipment (for 8-12 inch monocrystalline silicon wafer, silicon carbide and sapphire wafer manufacturing) in Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province.
Investment suggestion: optimistic about the company's performance in the fields of photovoltaic, semiconductor, sapphire and silicon carbide in the next five years. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 will be 2.47/34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44% / 38%, corresponding to 29 / 21 times of PE. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the R & D Progress of semiconductor equipment is lower than expected; The downstream expansion of photovoltaic production was less than expected.
