\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 19 Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) )
Key investment points
The company predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 in 2022 will be 248266 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17.23% - 25.74% and a month-on-month increase of 42.80% - 53.16%. The company predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 was 248266 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17.23% - 25.74% and a month-on-month increase of 42.80% - 53.16%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 218 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.64% - 10.79% and a month on month increase of 93.45% - 110.86%, of which the non recurring profit and loss was RMB 48 million, mainly due to government subsidies, and the performance was in line with market expectations.
In 2022, 50000 tons of Q1 were shipped, with a slight increase month on month. The non net profit deducted from a single ton is expected to be 4000 yuan. The rise of liquid alkali cost still affects some profits. The company expects to ship 50000 tons in Q1 in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 35% and a slight increase month on month. In terms of profitability, the net profit per ton of Q1 in 2022 is about 4200 yuan / ton, which is significantly recovered from 2200 yuan / ton of Q4 in 2021. However, due to the high price of Q1 liquid alkali in 2022, we expect to still affect the net profit per ton of the company by about 2000 yuan / ton. At present, the company's production has not been affected by the epidemic. We expect that the Q2 output will further increase month on month in 2022, and the annual shipment is expected to be 300000 tons, an increase of 70% at the same time. With the 20000 ton nickel smelting capacity of Q3 phase I put into operation in 2022, we expect that the annual profit per ton in 2022 is expected to increase to 6000 yuan / ton.
China's outward production expansion will be accelerated, the trend of high growth will be maintained in 2022, and the integrated layout will be further deepened. By the end of 2021, the production capacity of ternary precursor of the company is 200000 tons and that of Co3O4 is 30000 tons. With the completion and operation of 60000 tons in the west, 35000 tons in the middle and 180000 tons in the south, we expect the production capacity of the company to exceed 500000 tons by the end of 2022. The company deeply binds customers such as LG, Tesla, dangsheng and Xia tungsten, and enters the Ningde supply chain. We expect the company to ship 300000 tons in 2022, an increase of 70%, including 280000 tons of Sanyuan + and 28000 tons of Co3O4 +, of which SK and dangsheng doubled, and Tesla began to start self-made. Upstream, the company's phase I 20000 ton nickel resources project in Indonesia is progressing smoothly. The company expects Q3 to be gradually completed and put into operation in 2022, and the phase II project will be carried out simultaneously; At the same time, the company signed a cooperation agreement with Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) and a cooperation agreement with Tengyuan cobalt industry to ensure the supply of raw materials.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the previous forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.859/30.80/4.321 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 98% / 66% / 40%, give 45xpe in 2022, target price of RMB 138.1, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials fluctuates.
