\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 949 Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) )
The revenue maintained medium and high growth, and the provision for receivables was sufficient. In 2021, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 2.88/110 billion, yoy + 51.9% / – 39.2%; 21q4 revenue and net profit attributable to parent company: 1.04 / – 40 billion, yoy + 35.5 / – 156.3%. There are two reasons for revenue growth and profit decline: 1 Credit impairment of RMB 110 million was accrued in Q4, mainly because the company made bad debt provision for receivable assets of real estate customers such as Evergrande; 2. The company’s gross profit margin declined. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 20.9%, yoy-5.5pct, mainly due to the low proportion of engineering construction business gross profit margin, which reduced the overall gross profit margin. If the company’s Q4 credit impairment loss is excluded, the total profit in 2021 will be 260 million, yoy + 17.1%. The operating cash flow was 240 million, yoy-8.3%, which remained high and stable. The sales / management / Finance / R & D rate is 1.7 / 5.7 / 0.4 / 3.4%, yoy-0.2 / – 1.1 / + 0.2 / – 0.5pct. The increase in financial expenses is due to the company’s implementation of the new lease standards, including the interest on lease liabilities in financial expenses, and the addition of interest on convertible bonds.
The main design industry grew steadily, and the per capita output value increased significantly. In 2021, the revenue from design / cost / construction / whole process consultation is 1.54/2.3/10.9/0.20 billion, yoy + 24.7 / + 34.4 / + 137.4 / – 29.3%; The gross profit margin is 31.7 / 34.9 / 2.7 / 25.6%, yoy-1.6 / + 2.5 / – 2.2 / – 2.3pct. The rapid growth of construction business has significantly increased, which is mainly due to the company’s execution of large engineering orders won in 2020q2. In addition to the cost, the gross profit margin of all businesses decreased, which we believe is related to the increase of building materials cost and the intensification of external competition. The newly signed design / cost orders are 2.44/450 billion, yoy + 5.1/27.3%, and the assembled architectural design in the design is 1.09 billion, accounting for 45% and yoy + 19%. Assembly orders maintained medium and high growth, but the growth rate of design business orders slowed down. We believe that it is mainly due to the decline in real estate construction demand. The company has 4616 designers, yoy + 4.6%; The per capita income is 333000 yuan, yoy + 19.2%. The significant expansion of personnel has come to an end, and the per capita income has increased significantly.
The company’s risk has been fully released and is expected to usher in the opportunity of valuation repair. The company has made individual provision for bad debt loss in 2021, and the risk is fully released. We believe that under the influence of the epidemic since 2022, the pace of demand recovery has been disrupted, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and further policy support is needed to stabilize growth. The capital of infrastructure real estate chain enterprises is expected to improve, and enterprises are expected to usher in the opportunity of valuation repair.
With the continuous investment of assembly and BIM, the growth momentum of the company is still strong. The company has accelerated the promotion of prefabricated design business, with orders accounting for nearly half in 21 years. In 2025, the prefabricated design of new buildings is required to reach 30%. Prefabricated design will still be an important driving force for the growth of the company. Under the trend of expanding the whole construction industry chain, the importance of industrial resource integration ability of architectural design enterprises is prominent. The company continues to increase investment in BIM Technology. In 2021, it has obtained 7 relevant invention patents and developed and launched the ibim platform v4 Version 0 and Huayang quick build version 2022, Huayang city technology company has more than 130 employees. In February 2022, the company plans to invest 15 million yuan, holding 30% of the shares, and Zwsoft Co.Ltd(Guangzhou)(688083) plans to establish a joint venture to develop domestic BIM software, which is expected to usher in the opportunity of domestic substitution of BIM software.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We predict the company’s eps1 in 22-24 years 24 / 1.62/2.00 yuan / share (originally predicted to be 1.35/1.71 yuan / share in 22-23 years). Referring to comparable companies, the current reasonable valuation level of the company is 15x PE in 2022, and the corresponding target price is 18.59 yuan,
Risk tips
The promotion of prefabricated construction policy is less than expected, the risk of bad debts of accounts receivable, and the new orders and order conversion are less than expected
