\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 557 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) )
Event: the company disclosed the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 5.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.4%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.0%; The net cash flow from operating activities was 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 125.3%. 4q21 revenue + 28.3%, net profit attributable to parent + 21.5%, net profit deducted from non attributable to parent + 31.6%. The fourth quarter performance exceeded expectations.
Key points supporting rating
4q21 growth accelerated, and the annual net interest rate increased slightly. (1) In 2021, the company's revenue was + 13.2% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 15.4% year-on-year. 4q21 company's revenue was + 28.3% year-on-year, net profit attributable to parent company was + 21.5% year-on-year, and net profit not attributable to parent company was deducted by + 31.6% year-on-year. 4q21's revenue and net profit attributable to parents are the best performance in history. We judge that it is related to the move forward of the Spring Festival, the relaxation of the return policy and the smooth transmission of price increase. (2) Price increase + scale advantage to resist the pressure of rising costs, and the net interest rate increased slightly. In 2021, the price of raw materials continued to rise. The company responded by giving full play to the advantages of large-scale procurement, price locking strategy and price increase. The annual gross profit margin reached 32.0%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.1pct; The net interest rate was 15.5%, year-on-year + 0.3pct. The company's expense rate remained stable, and the sales / management / R & D expense rates were + 0.3pct, - 0.2pct and + 0.1pct respectively.
Sunflower seeds grew steadily and nuts increased rapidly. The company focuses on core categories and constructs a dual growth curve of sunflower seeds + nuts. (1) In 2021, the company's sunflower seed revenue was 3.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.9%. Red bag melon seeds gain growth through the promotion of weak market and channel sinking, while blue bag melon seeds continue to enrich the product matrix, and the promotion effect of new products such as rattan pepper, sea salt and tangerine peel is good. Driven by the weakening of base effect and new products, 2h21 sunflower seed income improved significantly month on month. (2) In 2021, the nut revenue was 1.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43.8%. The daily sales of nuts in small yellow bags contributed 1 billion yuan, and the sales of probiotic nuts and daily nut oatmeal exceeded 100 million yuan, becoming a new growth point.
Outlook: the growth rate is expected to decline in the first quarter, and it is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2022. (1) The Spring Festival in 2022 is relatively early, and part of the revenue of the annual goods Festival is recognized in 4q21. We judge that the revenue growth rate of 1q22 will decline month on month. Combining 4q21 and 1q22, we judge that the price increase of the company is conducted smoothly and the terminal dynamic sales are in good condition, with a good growth rate compared with the same period of the previous year. (2) In the second quarter, the epidemic spread out in many places to promote home consumption, adding the impact of price hikes. We judged that the growth of melon seed income was expected to increase month on month. (3) Looking forward to the whole year, we believe that the company will continue to improve its channels, product structure upgrading, brand communication and operation efficiency, and we are optimistic that the company will achieve rapid growth in 2022.
Valuation
According to the annual report, we adjusted the previous profit forecast and estimated that the EPS of 22-24 years was 2.15, 2.49 and 2.86 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 17.4%, + 15.6% and + 15.0%, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The promotion of new products is less than expected, the cost of raw materials fluctuates, and food safety problems.
