\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 812 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) )
Key investment points:
Recommendation logic. The company is the leader in the wet diaphragm industry. With the rapid growth of power batteries and energy storage, the company fully enjoys the benefits brought by the industry β Attribute, based on the advantages brought by its own production capacity and process, it has higher competitiveness compared with its peers α， Production capacity and diaphragm price exceeding expectations will become direct catalytic factors. While stabilizing the field of wet diaphragm, the company expands aluminum-plastic film and dry diaphragm horizontally, which is expected to bring higher marginal income to the company.
The momentum of global automobile electrification has been unstoppable, and the high growth and high certainty have given the whole industry chain enough support β Properties. It is rare in the world to reach a consensus on the development of new energy vehicles. Due to the rapid increase of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the large amount of energy storage in the future, the whole industrial chain of lithium batteries, lithium battery materials and upstream raw materials is in a state of continuous high growth.
The diaphragm industry has an excellent pattern, and the leader will fully enjoy the high growth dividend. The competition pattern of diaphragm industry is excellent. Through the advantages of equipment and technology, the company has achieved rapid expansion of production capacity, reduced costs and increased profits, accounting for 50% of the market, forming a pattern of one super and many strong diaphragm industry. At the same time, the tight relationship between supply and demand has led to improved prices. With the rapid growth of new energy vehicles and energy storage, the diaphragm industry is high β Industry, the company can fully enjoy high growth dividends.
The two marginal growth points should not be ignored. The expansion and introduction of the company's online coating capacity can further obtain coating customers to a certain extent, reduce the potential cost of coating links, improve the single average profit and strengthen the company's core competitiveness. In addition, the horizontal development of aluminum-plastic film and dry process diaphragm is expected to bring marginal benefits to the company.
Profit forecast: we estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 14.4/20.2/26.7 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.4/8/10.5 billion yuan, corresponding to 33 / 22 / 17 times of the current valuation respectively. In view of the fact that the company, as the leader of the diaphragm sector, fully enjoys the high growth dividend of the industry, and its performance is expected to usher in a simultaneous rise in volume and price, the company is given 50 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 302 yuan, with 50% upward space, and a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of new energy vehicle sales falling short of expectations, the risk of accelerating the progress of solid-state batteries, the risk of the company's production expansion falling short of expectations, macroeconomic and policy risks.
