\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 99 Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) )
The performance in 21 years reached a record high, and 22q1 maintained steady operation. In 21 years, the company realized revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non-profit were 26.1 / 7.6 / 710 million respectively, yoy + 18.0% / 18.2% / 26.0%, and the performance was in line with expectations. In the fourth quarter of a single year, the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non-profit were 6.5 / 1.4 / 130 million, yoy + 25.8% / 19.5% / 32.1% respectively. At the same time, the company announced the performance forecast for the first quarter of 22 years. It is estimated that the revenue of 22q1 will be 590 million, yoy-5%, of which the revenue of carbon fiber (including fabric) / carbon beam / prepreg will be 380 / 1.4 / 0.5 million, yoy + 7% / + 2% / – 56%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company / non deduction profit will be 210 / 200 million and yoy-5.4% / – 5.7% respectively. First, the price of finalized carbon fiber products supplied in batches by the company has decreased year-on-year. Second, due to the impact of the epidemic, some business segments of the company have stopped production, Logistics interruption affects production and product delivery.
The business of carbon fiber and fabric / carbon beam maintained stable growth, and the growth of prepreg accelerated. 1) In 21 years, the revenue of carbon fiber and fabric reached 1.28 billion, yoy + 18.3%, of which the sales volume (including internal sales volume) was 1832 tons, yoy + 7.2%, mainly due to the batch production and contribution of two fund-raising projects with M40J / m55j carbon fiber and t700s / t800s carbon fiber as products; The average price of H1 / H2 is 102.7706000 yuan / ton respectively. The decline in the average price of H2 is mainly due to the decline in the price of finalized carbon fiber and the change of product structure. 2) In 21 years, the revenue of carbon beam was 810 million, yoy + 12.6%, of which the sales volume was 8.985 million meters, yoy + 25.0%, the average price was 89.9 yuan / meter, yoy-10.0%. The company took various measures to develop business resources and alleviate the impact of insufficient order delivery due to the tight supply of carbon fiber, the main raw material. 3) In the 21st year, the prepreg business achieved revenue of 360 million yuan, yoy + 51.9%, of which the sales volume was 7.535 million square meters, yoy + 4.9%, the average price was 47.7 yuan / m2, yoy + 44.9%, which was mainly due to the company’s successful development of carbon fiber semi prepreg suitable for the manufacture of wind power blades, driving the revenue growth of the sector. At the same time, the company actively optimized the product structure and increased the proportion of high value-added products.
Capacity continues to expand and is optimistic about long-term growth. In terms of carbon fiber, the design capacity was 2655 tons at the end of the year, and the annual capacity utilization rate was 78.4%; At present, the capacity under construction is 5030 tons, including 4000 tons of capacity under construction in the first phase of Inner Mongolia Guangwei low-cost carbon fiber project and 30 tons of m55j fiber capacity under construction in the high-performance carbon fiber industrialization project. The original “military civilian integration” project is transformed to produce t700g / t800h carbon fiber products. We expect that all of them are expected to be put into operation in 2022. In terms of carbon beam, the designed capacity at the end of the year was 10.2 million meters, the annual capacity utilization rate was 83.1%, and the capacity under construction was 1.7 million meters. It is expected to be put into operation in 2022. In terms of prepreg, at the end of the year, the design capacity was 13.75 million square meters, the annual capacity utilization rate was 58.4%, and the capacity under construction was 850000 square meters, which has been completed and put into use after passing the acceptance.
Military and civilian two wheel drive to continuously optimize the industrial layout. The company is the largest supplier of military carbon fiber in China. With the large-scale batch production of relevant models of products, the military products business is expected to achieve high growth. The company is also a core supplier of carbon beams for wind power giant Vestas. At the same time, it actively expands the fields of civil products such as gas cylinders / Construction Engineering / thermal field / industrial manufacturing, which is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of demand side. By participating in the capital increase and holding Weihai Guangsheng, the company announced that it plans to directly acquire 100% equity of Beijing Lanke (which has a related relationship with Weihai Guangsheng in terms of business and equity) with a cash contribution of 32.9 million yuan. We believe that after the acquisition, the company has enhanced its business competitiveness in high-end equipment such as civil aerospace and further optimized the industrial layout.
Investment suggestion: we slightly lowered the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to 9.7/12.1/1.49 billion yuan (the original net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 was 1.01/1.29 billion yuan). Mainly considering the impact of the epidemic, we reduced the sales assumption of carbon fiber and prepreg. The adjusted profit forecast corresponds to 28 / 22 / 18 times the current stock price PE, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of performance fluctuation; Risk of new product development; Risk that the progress of capacity release is lower than expected.
