\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 030 Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) )
Key points
Event: Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released the performance express for the first quarter of 2022. The company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 15.216 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 7.20%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company was RMB 5.229 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.24%.
It is expected that the main reason for the decline of the company’s revenue is the reduction of proprietary income and leverage. The company’s revenue in the first quarter decreased slightly year-on-year. We expect that the main reasons are as follows: 1) from the perspective of income structure in 21 years, the proportion of brokerage / investment / investment bank / asset management / other income of the company is 24% / 24% / 10% / 18% / 24% respectively, accounting for a relatively balanced proportion. We expect that the company’s brokerage business and investment banking business will be less affected by the A-share adjustment. The slight decline in revenue in the first quarter is mainly affected by the decline in proprietary investment income. At the same time, it is expected that the improvement of the company’s gross profit margin and the improvement of asset quality will maintain a positive growth in the company’s net profit. 2) The leverage ratio of the company was 5.57 (total assets / net assets attributable to the parent) in the first quarter of 22, which was lower than that in the same period of 21 years. We expect that the decline in leverage ratio is mainly due to the decline in the growth rate of self operated scale and customer financing scale.
The brokerage business is expected to grow positively year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2012, the market stock based trading volume increased year-on-year, but the financing balance decreased. We expect the company’s brokerage business income to maintain a positive growth of about 10% year-on-year, but the growth rate of interest income brought by financing business is expected to decrease compared with the same period of 21 years. At the same time, at the end of the 21st year, the company had more than 12 million customers, and the asset scale of entrusted customers totaled 11 trillion yuan, an increase of 29% over the end of the 20th year. The huge customer base is conducive to the transformation of the company’s wealth management business and the stability of its leading position.
The stock and debt business is expected to continue to maintain the industry leadership, and the leading advantage under the registration system is prominent. According to the statistics of wind data, the total equity fund-raising amount of the whole market in the first quarter of 22 years was 419.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and the cumulative issuance of corporate bonds was 845.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. We believe that the company’s investment banking revenue is expected to be basically flat, and the company’s market share is expected to continue to maintain the leading position in the market. In 21 years, the market share of the company’s A-share lead underwriting amount was 18%, an increase of 1 percentage point over the previous year; The amount of bonds underwritten by the company accounts for 13.74% of the total amount of securities companies. 21 years ago, the market share of the stock business of the top ten securities companies reached 72%. In 22 years, under the background of the comprehensive promotion of the registration system, the trend of investment banking business focusing on the head has become more and more obvious, and the company’s advantages as an industry leader are expected to be further highlighted.
The investment income is expected to decline, and the agency derivatives business is expected to contribute more. Affected by the market adjustment in the first quarter of 22, we expect the company’s investment business income to decline year-on-year. However, affected by the market impact, it is expected that the hedging demand of institutional investors will increase, which is conducive to the rapid development of the company’s agency derivatives business.
Investment suggestion: the performance of the securities industry in the first quarter is under pressure. As a leader in the industry, CITIC is expected to further improve its market share by relying on its excellent exhibition ability and strong brand advantages. In view of the company’s lower than expected performance in the first quarter, we lowered the company’s net profit forecast for 22-24 years to 25.382 billion yuan (7.9% lower than the original forecast), 29.031 billion yuan (11.2% lower than the original forecast) and 33.647 billion yuan (11.6% lower than the original forecast). Considering the leading advantages of the company, we maintained the “overweight” rating of A-Shares and the “buy” rating of H shares.
Risk warning: the promotion of capital market policies is not as expected; Sharp market shocks affect the performance of stock prices.
