\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 531 Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) )
Event overview: on April 12, the company released its annual report for 2021: the operating revenue was 8.172 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.42%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.76%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.075 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.91%. In a single quarter, 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 2.952 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.45% and a month on month increase of 53.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 278 million yuan, an increase of 15.56% year-on-year and 19.51% month on month; Net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 287 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13.33% and a month on month increase of 26.16%.
The main business of tower tube is stable, and the large capacity of sea and land can be expected. In 2021, the company’s onshore tower sales revenue reached 5.177 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.47%; The sales volume was 626500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.13%. The average sales price of the corresponding tower was about 8264 yuan / ton (excluding tax), with a year-on-year decrease of 3.45%. In terms of profitability, affected by the rise in the price of main raw material steel sectors and the decline in the average delivery price, the gross profit margin of the company’s Tower in 2021 was 12.07%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.24pcs, corresponding to a gross profit per ton of about 998 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of about 32.67%. In terms of capacity construction, the onshore tower capacity has reached 900000 tons by the end of 2021. It is expected that with the promotion of capacity construction in Qian’an, Shayang, Hepu and other places, the onshore tower capacity of the company is expected to reach 1.2 million tons by 2022. In addition, the company actively arranges marine engineering. It is expected that the annual production capacity of Sheyang + Germany will be Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons in early 2023, and a new round of “two seas” layout will be carried out in 2022, focusing on Jiangsu, Guangdong / Guangxi and Fujian.
The blade and mold business decreased, and the rise of raw materials put pressure on profits. In 2021, the company’s leaf business achieved a sales revenue of 1.781 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.58%; Among them, 2675 blades were shipped, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.41%, and 61 sets of molds were shipped, with a year-on-year increase of 48.78%; In terms of profitability, subject to the rise in the prices of main raw materials such as resin and glass fiber during the year, the gross profit margin of the company’s leaf products was 16.98%, down 4.31pcs year-on-year. In terms of production capacity, Henan Puyang blade base was officially put into operation in 2021q1. Combined with the strategic cooperation agreement announced by the company and Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) signed on March 15, a certain minimum number of blade OEM business has been obtained; In 2021, the company’s blade business has basically completed the site selection layout, completed the site selection of bases in Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, central China and other places, and began construction one after another.
Based on the long term, “zero carbon business” is actively promoted. In terms of power generation business, by the end of 2021, the cumulative grid connected scale of the company had reached 884mw, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; The revenue from power generation was 1.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.94%; The gross profit margin was 70%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.47 PCTs; In addition, the 500MW wind power project in Xinghe County, Ulanqab city is expected to be connected to the grid by the end of 2022. In addition, relying on the industrial investment brought by the expansion of manufacturing capacity, the company has prospectively reserved considerable wind power station development resources. It is expected that with the landing of the company’s convertible bonds and the rolling development of the power station, the “equipment + zero carbon” two wheel drive is expected to inject new momentum into the development of the company.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 12.078 billion, RMB 16.721 billion and RMB 20.515 billion respectively, with a growth rate of 48% / 38% / 23%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.591 billion, RMB 2.313 billion and RMB 2.902 billion respectively, with a growth rate of 22% / 45% / 26%, corresponding to 14x / 10x / 8x PE in 22-24 years, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the speed of capacity expansion is lower than expected; Downstream demand was lower than expected.
