\u3000\u3000 Grandjoy Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000031) Grandjoy Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000031) )
Core view
After completing the asset restructuring of “a-controlled red chip” in 2019, the company has become the only real estate business platform under COFCO group, a central enterprise, and the synergy of residential and commercial two wheel drive is stronger: in 2021, the company’s operating revenue was 42.6 billion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year. Among them, the income from property sales was 35.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, accounting for 84%; The income from investment property was 5.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, accounting for 12%.
Turning losses into profits, retained profits will not be distributed temporarily: the net profit will be 770 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company became positive, which was 110 million yuan; The net profit margin attributable to the parent company increased slightly, but it was still only 0.3%, mainly because (1) the gross profit margin decreased by 4.0 percentage points to 27.4%, mainly because the gross profit margin of development and settlement decreased by 5.7 percentage points to 22.0%; (2) The provision for asset impairment reduced the net profit by 2.13 billion yuan; (3) The loss of investment income was 1.44 billion yuan. In order to ensure the needs of subsequent operation, no dividend will be paid in 2021.
Contracted sales increased steadily and the intensity of land acquisition remained: in 2021, the company’s sales amount was 72.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%; Although the sales area decreased by 8% year-on-year to 2.87 million m2, the average sales price increased by 14% year-on-year to 25331 yuan / m2; Set a sales target of 80 billion yuan in 2022. In 2021, the company added 3.27 million square meters of soil storage capacity, 114% of the new soil storage coverage, 31.6 billion yuan of land acquisition amount and 44% of the land acquisition intensity, demonstrating the company’s ability to invest against the trend; By the end of 2021, the marketable value of the company’s soil reserves was about 223 billion yuan.
Maintain the leading advantage of commercial real estate and adhere to the “light and heavy” expansion mode: the company has worked in the field of shopping centers for many years and focused on polishing its operation capacity. Now it has built a “2 + X” product line. In 2021, the company acquired one heavy asset project, landed seven light asset projects and opened four new projects. By the end of 2021, 24 projects have been opened, with a total commercial construction area of 2.94 million square meters; There are 20 reserve projects, with a total commercial construction area of about 1.79 million square meters. The company plans to expand at least 7 asset light projects in 2022. In 2021, the management output revenue of the company’s shopping center and office building light asset projects was 190 million yuan, accounting for 63% of the management output revenue.
Finance continued to be optimized and financing costs decreased: by the end of 2021, the company’s net debt ratio was 90% and the cash short debt ratio was 1.4; The asset liability ratio excluding advance receipts was 70.3%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous year, just one step from the green range. The company accurately grasped the financing opportunity, and the average cost of new loans in 2021 was 4.63%; By the end of 2021, the average financing cost was 4.91%, down 0.19 percentage points from the end of the previous year.
Investment suggestion: the company is actively layout and ready to go. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 and 2023 will be 1.81 billion yuan and 2.02 billion yuan respectively, the EPS corresponding to the latest share capital will be 0.42 and 0.47 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the latest share price will be 10.6 and 9.5 times respectively. The “buy” rating will be given for the first coverage.
Risk warning: the sales and settlement of the company’s development property are less than expected, the expansion and income of investment property are less than expected, the provision for asset impairment is more than expected, or the improvement of market environment is less than expected.
