\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Events
The company released the production and sales report in March 2022. The sales volume in March was 100930, with a year-on-year increase of – 8.9% and a month on month increase of + 42.6%. The cumulative sales volume in the first quarter of 22 years was 283500, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.3%.
Our analysis and judgment
(I) the year-on-year decline of sales volume in March narrowed and increased month on month. The company sold 100930 vehicles in March, with a month on month ratio of – 8.9% / + 42.6%, and the sales end was better than the industry level (according to the China Automobile Association, the car sales in March were – 11.7% / + 28.4% respectively). We believe that the reason for the year-on-year decline in production and sales in a single month is mainly affected by the shortage of parts caused by the outbreak of the epidemic. At present, the company is cooperating with parts suppliers to ensure supply. In the later stage, it plans to carry out material collaborative distribution of branch plant capacity and adjust the production rhythm, which will drive the year-on-year growth of batch sales and become positive. In terms of brands, Euler, tanks and Great Wall guns performed well. The sales volume of Euler brand was 14264, with a month on month ratio of + 9.3% / + 127.8%, including 6374 good cats, with a month on month ratio of + 201.2% / + 56.8%; 8922 tanks were delivered for 300, with a month on month ratio of + 78.3% / + 37.9%; The sales volume of Great Wall cannon was 14500, with a month on month ratio of + 20.0% / + 70.3%, the sales volume of Harvard brand was 54534, with a month on month ratio of – 18.8% / + 29.9%, and the sales volume of wey brand was 4755, with a month on month ratio of + 36.1% / + 7.3%.
(II) a number of new cars are on the market, and the sales volume is expected to grow steadily. Tank 500 will be delivered in mid and late April, driving up the volume. 2022 Euler cats have begun to accept reservations, boosting the sales volume of Euler series to achieve significant growth month on month. After Mocha dht-phev was listed, its sales volume exceeded 500 in March, driving the company’s selling price to further exceed 300000 yuan. In addition, two models of Harvey cool dog / Wei brand dream fulfillment / tank 700 / diamond gun / Euler Ballet / lightning / punk cat and salon brand are expected to be on the market this year. As more personalized and high-end models are gradually listed, the company is expected to obtain new sales space from more market segments.
(III) overseas sales rose month on month, and many models successively landed in the overseas market. In March, the company’s overseas sales volume was 10535 units, with a year-on-year increase of 30.8% and a month on month increase of 74.5%. The export sales volume was better than the industry level. At the end of March, the company has displayed Haval h6phev, Euler cat tank 300 and other models at the Thailand International Auto Show. In the first half of this year, mocha will also officially enter the German market to help the company’s global layout and construction.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 8.523/10.195/11.533 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 26.71% / 19.63% / 13.12%; The corresponding EPS is 0.92/1.10/1.25 yuan respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1. The epidemic affects the interruption of supply chain and consumption end, thus restricting the risk of production and sales of the company; 2. Risk of rising raw material prices;
