\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 642 Shenergy Company Limited(600642) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an annual operating revenue of 25.313 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.43%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.36%. In 2021, the company held 48.48 billion kwh of power generation, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%. The power generation held by local units accounted for 33% of the total power generation in Shanghai; The holding installed capacity was 139244 million KW, an increase of 10.27% year-on-year.
High industrial coal prices have dragged down performance, and the advantage of low coal consumption is prominent. Affected by the high industrial coal price, the coal-fired cost of the company’s coal power business increased significantly to 7.7 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 86.8% year-on-year compared with 41.22 in 2020. The high coal price leads to the overall pressure on the company’s thermal power business; In 2021, the coal power business achieved a revenue of 9.491 billion yuan and a cost of 9.51 billion yuan, with a gross profit of – 18 million yuan and a gross profit margin of – 0.19% compared with 1.469 billion yuan in the same period last year. The power supply coal consumption of the company’s holding is 282.7g/kwh, and the average unit price of standard coal consumed by the holding is 1052 yuan / ton. The company’s coal consumption is at the leading level in the industry, which makes the loss of the company’s coal power business in 2021 better than that of most thermal power enterprises. In addition, the gas and electricity business benefits from the capacity electricity price and stable gas source and gas price. The oil and gas pipeline transmission business charges a fixed gas pipeline transmission fee, and the operation is stable and risk-free.
The installed capacity structure has been continuously optimized, and the installed growth rate and profitability of new energy have been outstanding. The company added nearly 1.3gw of wind power installed capacity throughout the year. By 2021, the company held 139244 million kw of installed capacity, and new energy held 3.4488 million kw of installed capacity, accounting for 25%. In 2021, the revenue of wind power and photovoltaic was 1.915 billion yuan and 426 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 50%, the gross profit margin of photovoltaic was nearly 55%, remained stable, and the gross profit margin of wind power business was nearly 60%, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points over the same period last year. Throughout the year, the revenue of new energy business accounted for 9.25%, the gross profit accounted for 47.70%, and the contribution profit accounted for more than half, becoming a new profit growth point of the company. During the “14th five year plan” period, the company plans to add 1.6-2.0gw of new energy installed capacity every year. It is estimated that the installed capacity of new energy will account for nearly half in 2025.
Investment advice. It is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of 27.961/30.318/31.366 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, a net profit attributable to the parent of 3.56/40.3/4.51 billion yuan, an EPS of 0.724/0.820/0.918 yuan, and a corresponding PE of 7.76/6.85/6.12 times. The company’s coal power business has cost advantages, the gas power and oil and gas pipeline transmission businesses are stable, and the growth rate of new energy is fast. Considering the adjustment of the overall market valuation level this year, the company is given 10-11 times PE in 2022, and the reasonable price range is 7.24-7.97 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” rating of the company.
Risk tip: coal price rise risk, scenery growth rate is lower than expected, and market-oriented transaction price risk.
