\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: the company announced that the total revenue of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) business in 2021 was 19.971 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.75%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 7.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.45 billion. In addition, the company expects the total operating revenue of 2022q1 to be about 10.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 43%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 3.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 70%.
Key investment points
21 years ended successfully, and the profitability was enhanced. In 2021, the total operating revenue increased by 42.75% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 72.56% year-on-year. We continued to achieve rapid growth and fully controlled the pace of operation. We expect that the annual growth rate of blue and white series will be close to 80%, laobaifen will achieve high recovery growth, the proportion of medium and high-end products will continue to increase, and promote the net profit margin of parent company to achieve 26.60%, an increase of 4.6pct year-on-year.
22q1's performance exceeded market expectations, mainly due to the increase of blue and white's proportion + fee control. From January to February, the company's total operating revenue was more than 7.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 35%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was more than 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%. According to the company's announcement, we calculated that the total operating revenue in March was about 3.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 68%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was about 162%. In 2022q1, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company increased by 5.5pct to 35.24%, which exceeded the market expectation. We expect that it is mainly due to 1) the continuous increase in the proportion of blue and white income due to the large-scale growth of green 20 and Fuxing version; 2) Affected by the epidemic control, the cost of investment and Bofen decreased.
The impact of the epidemic is relatively small, and the thinking of medium and long-term growth is clear. In 2022, the potential energy of Fenjiu is still, the progress of Q1 payment collection is generally more than 35%, the main market feedback is that the dynamic sales are good, and the channel inventory is less than 1 month; On the whole, the overall impact of the epidemic is small. At present, the company fully coordinates the epidemic prevention and control and production and operation, and the production and operation rhythm, structure upgrading and annual business plan remain unchanged. In the medium and long term, the product structure continues to improve + the idea of national regional expansion continues, the market outside the province is refined, and the development is promoted by the joint efforts of points and areas.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the marketing idea is clear, the product structure is on the way, and the brand value is expected to continue to improve. We expect the company to achieve the growth rate above the target in 2022. We predict that the company's total revenue from 2022 to 2023 will be 26.633 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33% and 25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is predicted to be 7.75 billion yuan and 10.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 46% and 32%, corresponding to the EPS of 6.35/8.41 yuan from 2022 to 2023, and the current market value corresponding to PE is 40 / 30x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the epidemic control exceeded expectations, the expansion outside the province was less than expected, and the mobile sales of the revival version was less than expected
