\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 39 Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) )
With the coordinated development of API + cdmo + preparation, the company has entered a rapid growth period: Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) was established in 1989. After 30 years of development, the company's competitiveness has been continuously improved. The advantages of "API + Preparation" integration are obvious, cdmo business is accumulated and developed, the company's performance is growing rapidly, and the annual compound growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2017 to 2021 is 38.88%. In the future, the company will continue to promote the long-term development strategy of "refining API, strengthening cdmo and making excellent preparation", enter the rapid growth period of production capacity and business, continue to optimize the business structure, and is expected to develop into a comprehensive enterprise integrating "API + Preparation + cdmo".
China's API is the leader, the business is basically stable, and the profitability is expected to be improved. Under the general trend of tightening environmental protection policies and the transfer of global API production capacity to China, the company, as an old API enterprise, has highlighted its advantages, increased barriers and reduced competitors. In 2021, the company's API business achieved a revenue of 6.546 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.37%. In the short term, the upstream price rise is transmitted to the downstream, the operating price difference is expanded, and the profitability is repaired quickly; In the long run, the company has rich product reserves, and as a leader, it is expected to benefit from the return dividend of industry value.
Accelerate the R & D and capacity construction of cdmo, and differentially distribute the cdmo business of veterinary drugs. After the establishment of cdmo division in 2017, the company's business continued to move from intermediates to APIs, with a significant increase in orders. In 2021, the company's cdmo business revenue was 1.394 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, quotation projects and operation projects increased by 50% and 62% year-on-year, of which commercial orders increased by 61% year-on-year. In addition, the company's differentiated layout in the field of veterinary drug cdmo has gradually opened the overseas veterinary drug cdmo market and realized differentiated competition by deeply binding international giants shuotang and MSD. At present, there are seven commercial veterinary drug API varieties. With the gradual implementation of product stage and customer cultivation, cdmo business will be one of the core drivers of the company's performance and contribute new growth points to the performance.
With the advantages of integration + centralized purchase coordination, the preparation business can quickly open up space. The company continued to optimize the product structure and eliminated some varieties with low gross profit, with obvious quality improvement effect. The preparation sector is affected by the removal of ubenimex from medical insurance in the short term, but with the large amount of levofloxacin tablets, levetiracetam tablets and other varieties within the standard, the business is expected to resume high growth in 2022. In the long run, the subsequent new varieties will bring incremental performance, and the preparation sector with multi pipeline layout is expected to grow steadily.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 10.225 billion yuan, 11.735 billion yuan and 13.549 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.34%, 14.78% and 15.45% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.128 billion yuan, 1.419 billion yuan and 1.826 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 18.09%, 25.75% and 28.72% respectively. The P / E valuation from 2022 to 2024 was 28x, 22x and 17x respectively. Based on the company's 1) stable growth of API varieties; 2) Cdmo of veterinary drugs is deeply bound with shuotang and mosadong, with rapid volume; 3) The preparation business quickly seizes the market with the help of integration advantages; For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk tip: environmental protection policy tightened; The cost transmission to the downstream is less than expected; The approval and volume of new products are less than expected; Cdmo business is less than expected; Exchange gain / loss risk
