\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 997 Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) )
Events
Grammer released the 22q1 performance forecast. The 22q1 revenue was slightly higher than that in the same period last year, with an EBIT loss of about 1 million euros and an operating EBIT loss of about 2.5 million euros. Grammer’s revenue accounts for more than 80% of the revenue of listed companies. The company’s 22q1 will be affected by the decline of grammer’s performance and is expected to decline year-on-year.
Key investment points
Under multiple repression, the profit of Gramer in 22q1 turned from profit to loss year-on-year, but it improved significantly compared with 21q4
According to the first quarter forecast of grammer, the revenue of 22q1 is slightly higher than that of the same period last year, that is, the revenue in the first quarter is expected to be about 500 million euros, and the EBIT loss is about 1 million euros. The ebitmargin is about – 0.2%, and that of 21q1 is 4.5%, which turns from profit to loss year-on-year. The main reason is the rise of raw materials, freight and energy prices. The Chinese epidemic has led to the shutdown of grammer in China, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also expected to have a certain impact on the European market. At the same time, 22q1 America has a one-time special freight of about 4 million euros. If you add it back, the EBIT profit in the first quarter is about 3 million euros, which is significantly improved compared with 21q4, and the 21q4ebit loss is 7.5 million euros. Although the new conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the negative impact of the epidemic in China in the first quarter of this year, it is significantly improved compared with 21q4, showing the effectiveness of integration.
Grammer’s localization is advancing steadily, and the integration effect is about to be released
We are still confident in the integration of grammer. This overseas M & A is based on the understanding and precipitation of the same industrial chain, and has replicability in management and manufacturing experience, resulting in the certainty of integration. Since the merger of grammer in 2019, we have encountered external shocks such as epidemic, core shortage, global inflation and Russia Ukraine war, and the integration effect has not yet appeared. It is expected that grammer’s profitability will be repaired after the external shocks are cleared one by one, At the same time, grammer’s commercial vehicle seat business is accelerating localization.
The new forces of the seat have a promising future
Pay attention to the historic opportunity of reshaping the pattern of the passenger car seat industry. The company has taken the lead in the field of headrest to enter the passenger car seat assembly. The seat market is 100 billion racetracks, and there is a large space for import substitution. The company is expected to continue to break through major customers by virtue of technology, response speed, globalization ability and cost advantage. It is expected that the company will continue to make new progress in the field of passenger car seat assembly in 22 years.
Profit forecast and valuation
Grammer integration is coming to an end, which will release greater performance flexibility. In the medium and long term, the company is optimistic about the development of passenger car seats on the new track and is expected to become a domestic passenger car seat assembly head enterprise. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 314 / 703 / 1037 million, yoy will be 148.83% / 123.64% / 47.41%, corresponding to pe27.5% 12 / 12.12/8.22 times, with a “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Repeated outbreaks, conflict between Russia and Ukraine, chip supply falling short of expectations, and rising raw material prices
