\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 180 Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) )
The performance in 2021 was in line with expectations, and the expansion of channels + categories helped the continuous growth and maintained the “buy” rating
In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 3.448 billion yuan (+ 30.61%), net profit attributable to parent company of 338 million yuan (+ 15.49%), net profit not attributable to parent company of 263 million yuan (+ 10.79%), and revenue and profit maintained rapid growth under high base. In 2021q4, the revenue is 1.228 billion yuan (+ 19.87%), the net profit attributable to the parent company is 180 million yuan (+ 24.88%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company is 158 million yuan (+ 17.47%). The performance in 2021 is in line with the expectation. Considering the repeated epidemic, the profit forecast is lowered and the profit forecast for 2024 is added. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 407 / 513 / 622 million yuan (originally 419 / 524 million yuan in 20222023), the corresponding EPS will be 2.64/3.32/4.03 yuan, and the current share price will be 12.1/9.6/7.9 times that of PE. Look at the strength of many channels and categories, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Revenue splitting: the synergy of “kitchen clothing wood” is enhanced, and the retail business is performing well
(1) by category: in 2021, the company’s kitchen cabinet business maintained stable growth, the wardrobe and wooden door business increased rapidly, and the synergistic effect of “kitchen clothing wood” was enhanced. The annual revenue growth of the three was + 19.62% / + 60.33% / + 242.17% respectively;
(2) by channel: in 2021, the company’s distribution channel revenue was 1.878 billion yuan (+ 33.3%), the gross profit margin was 35.3% (- 0.1pct), the engineering channel revenue was 1.145 billion yuan (+ 28.2%), and the gross profit margin was 13.3% (- 5.2pct). In a single quarter, 2021q4 distribution channels continued to pick up, and the growth rate of Engineering channels slowed down significantly. According to our calculation, 2021q4 distribution channel revenue was about 700 million yuan (+ 32%), and engineering channel revenue was about 390 million yuan (+ 0.3%). In 2021, there will be 135 / 197 / 207 / 30 net stores for cabinet / wardrobe / wooden door / decoration, which is significantly faster than the expansion of stores in 2020.
Profitability: the cost increases, the gross profit margin is damaged, and the net profit margin of 2021q4 is effectively warmed up
Gross profit margin: the overall gross profit margin of the company was 30.5% (- 2.2pct) in 2021. The decline was mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials when the price of the company’s bulk business products was locked in advance. We believe that the contract performance price of the company’s new engineering business will be raised in 2022, and the gross profit margin of bulk business is expected to recover. Expense rate side: benefiting from the rapid growth of revenue scale and excellent fee control ability, the expense rate of the company during 2021 was 21.38% (-0.27pct), which continued to decline. Net profit margin: in 2021, the company’s net profit margin was 9.8% (- 1.28pct) and the net profit margin deducted was 7.63% (- 1.36pct). The pressure on net profit margin was mainly affected by the decline of gross profit margin. The net interest rate of 2021q4 company was 14.64%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.59pct and a month on month increase of 6.65pct, which effectively warmed up its profitability.
Risk warning: the recovery of completion data and terminal demand is less than expected; Category and channel expansion slowed down.
