\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
High quality development in 2021, continued strong growth in 2022 and maintained the "buy" rating
In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 19.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.6%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 10.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 43% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 3.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 70%. As 2021q4 company controls goods and removes inventory, we slightly reduce the profit forecast for 2021 and maintain the profit forecast for 20222023. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 20212023 will be 5.31 (- 0.1) billion yuan, 7.99 (+ 0.0) billion yuan and 10.94 (+ 0.0) billion yuan respectively, and EPS will be 4.36 yuan, 6.54 yuan and 8.96 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 58.1, 38.6 and 28.2 times respectively. The growth potential of the company in 2022 is sufficient to maintain the "buy" rating.
2021q4 controls goods and destocks, and 2022q1 starts off light
2021q4 strictly controlled goods and destocking, resulting in the decline of current revenue and performance. 2022q1 loaded lightly, received payments smoothly, and achieved rapid growth in revenue and performance. On the whole, 2021q4 + 2022q1 achieved a total operating revenue of about 13.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 21%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 4.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 48%. During the Spring Festival, when the epidemic situation in the company's key markets was repeated, the company still achieved high growth on the premise of benign dynamic sales, demonstrating market confidence and growth toughness.
The product structure has been greatly improved, and the net interest rate in 2022q1 has reached the best level in history
In 2021, the growth rate of Qinghua is expected to be much higher than the overall level, actively control the growth rate of Bofen and further improve the product structure. The net interest rate of 2022q1 company is as high as 35%, an increase of 5.5pct compared with the same period in 2021, which mainly benefits from the increase of the proportion of blue and white, and the proportion of internal revival version of blue and white has increased significantly. In 2022, the revival version of high-end products will have a strong determination to achieve a breakthrough in scale, with a good foundation. The low-end Bofen will strictly control the quantity, and the product structure will continue to improve.
There is still room for growth, the internal driving force continues to strengthen, and the annual performance can still achieve the set goals
In 2022q1, the company achieved high growth under the condition of strictly controlling the quota of Bofen. At present, the medium and high-end sales are progressing smoothly. If the impact of the epidemic exceeds expectations, Bofen as a unique single product can still be supplemented. Taking the appointment of the new chairman as an opportunity, the company's internal talent training, organization and management ability will be further strengthened. Benefiting from the unique product structure and the improvement of internal management efficiency, the company's annual revenue and profit can still achieve the set goals under the influence of the epidemic.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuations lead to a decline in demand, and the expansion outside the province is less than expected
