\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 319 Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc(688319) )
Main points:
The large volume of single vaccine products drives the growth of performance, and the adsorbed tetanus vaccine occupies an important position in the adult market and contributes to the main income of the company
Through years of research and development accumulation, the company has successively launched three main products: ① the batch issuance of adsorbed tetanus vaccine in 2020 was 3.318 million, accounting for 88% of the total batch issuance of adsorbed tetanus vaccine. With the access and promotion of trauma clinics and the expansion of adult tetanus vaccination market, the sales of adsorbed tetanus vaccine is expected to grow at a compound growth rate of about 24% from 2020 to 2030, and grow into a large single product with sales of nearly 2 billion yuan in 2030; ② Hib conjugate vaccine contributes stable income; ③ AC conjugate vaccine was approved to be listed in 2021 and began to be sold in large quantities in the fourth quarter, contributing incremental revenue to the company. The sales revenue in 2022 is expected to exceed 100 million yuan.
"Independent + cooperative" has set up a research and development pipeline, and the independent research and development of multi vaccine based on three single vaccines is in progress simultaneously. The cooperative recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is a heavy variety cooperation worthy of expectation: ① the recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine developed by the company in cooperation with the army military medical university belongs to class 1 innovative vaccine, which is the only recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine in clinical trials in China. The summary report of phase II clinical trial for indications of closed fracture shows good safety. If it is successfully approved for listing, it is conservatively predicted that a single indication will generate more than 1 billion yuan of revenue, which is a heavy single product with broad market space. ② The company cooperates with Griffith University to develop broad-spectrum gas vaccine, which can theoretically cover all group A Streptococcus serotypes. It belongs to class 1 innovative vaccine and is applying for a patent outside China. Autonomy: Based on the three single vaccines, ① using the polysaccharide protein binding technology platform, the company's AC Hib combined vaccine has obtained the phase III clinical summary report, which is to be applied for production. It is expected to be approved for listing in 2023, and the revenue is expected to reach hundreds of millions of yuan within three years. Similar products only Zhifei triple vaccine is in phase III clinical research stage; ② Adsorbed acellular hundred (three component) leucoclast AC Hib hexavaccine entered the preclinical research and development stage. In addition, 13 valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine and 23 valent pneumonia polysaccharide vaccine are in the preclinical stage.
Investment suggestion: for the first time, give the company a rating of "overweight (first time)"
The company is a typical "small and beautiful" among private vaccine companies. It has adsorbed tetanus vaccine, Hib single vaccine, AC combined vaccine and other products that contribute to the steady growth of cash flow, as well as heavy products under research such as recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine, triple vaccine and Liulian vaccine. Combined with the company's product pipeline layout and actual product promotion, we expect the company's operating revenue to be RMB 487 / 645 / 916 million respectively from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 52.2% / 32.4% / 41.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 111 / 113 / 205 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 206.6% / 1.7% / 81.5%; The PE of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 70.75/69.54/38.32 respectively. Considering the sustained and rapid development of the vaccine industry and the long-term growth brought by the continuous listing of heavy products in the next few years, we covered the company for the first time and rated the company as "overweight (first time)".
Risk tips
Risk of clinical trial failure; The risk that covid-19 pneumonia may adversely affect the normal production and operation of the company; Risk of product market expansion; Risk of approval failure, etc.
