\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 531 Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) )
In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.76%, which is basically in line with the expectation: the company issued the annual report of 2021, and achieved a total operating revenue of 8.172 billion yuan during the reporting period, with a year-on-year increase of 0.89%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.76%. In 2021q4, the operating revenue was 2.952 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.13% and a month on month increase of 53.22%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 278 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.56% and a month on month increase of 19.51%. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 21.57%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.92 PCT, and in 2021q4, the gross profit margin was 17.62%, a year-on-year increase of 5.30 PCT and a month on month decrease of 0.08 PCT; In 2021, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 16.04%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.00pct; in 2021q4, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 9.42%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.20pct and a month on month decrease of 2.66pct.
Affected by the high base of rush loading and the rise of raw material prices, the growth of the company’s Tower shipment slowed down and the gross profit margin decreased: in 2021, the tower shipment was 626500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.13%, the unit price was 8300 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.45%, and the tower gross profit margin was 12.07%, with a year-on-year increase of -5.24pct, mainly due to the high base of rush loading of onshore wind power in 2020. The installed capacity fell year-on-year in 2021, and the growth of the company’s Tower shipment slowed down. In addition, steel prices rose sharply in the first three quarters of 2021, putting pressure on profits. We expect that in 2022, the demand for onshore wind power will be repaired and the company’s tower capacity will be released, resulting in a significant increase in shipments. In 2022, the company’s tower capacity is expected to be 1-1.2 million tons, and the shipment target is 9 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) million tons. Moreover, as the price of raw materials returns to a reasonable level, the gross profit margin of the tower is expected to improve in 2022, with both volume and profit.
Blade business revenue declined: in 2021, the company’s blade and mold revenue totaled 1.781 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 17.57%. The gross profit margin was 16.98%, with a year-on-year increase of -4.31pct. Among them, 2675 blades were sold, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.43%, and 61 sets of molds were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 48.78%. The decline in blade business income is due to the impact of the high base in 2020 and the decline in the bidding price of wind turbines in 2021, which is transmitted to the upstream and the decline in the selling price of the company’s blades.
The capacity expansion of tower and blade is accelerated, the leading position is stable, the offshore capacity is arranged, and the sea breeze opportunity is grasped: 1) in terms of onshore tower, the capacity will reach 900000 tons by the end of 2021, and the total capacity of Qianan, Shayang and Hepu tower bases will be about 300000 tons in 2022, which is expected to be released, with a total capacity of 1.2 million tons; 2) In terms of sea breeze, the company mainly arranges the capacity of pile foundation and jacket. The capacity of 300000 tons in Germany and 300000 tons in Sheyang will be put into operation at the end of 2022 and 2023q1 respectively. The capacity of marine engineering will reach 300000 and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons in 2022 and 2023. As the value of pile foundation and jacket is higher than that of tower, the company’s offshore business is expected to be fully profitable with the outbreak of demand for offshore wind power in 2023. 3) In terms of blades, six new blade production lines were put into operation in Puyang in 2021, contributing 450 pieces of capacity, with a total capacity of 1350 pieces. In 2020, three production bases, namely, 1052 and 1052, were built and put into operation. With the accelerated expansion of tower + blade capacity, the leading position of tower industry continues to strengthen, and the blade industry will rank among the first echelon.
Significant increase in power generation revenue: by the end of 2021, the cumulative grid connected scale of the company’s wind farms had reached 884mw, a year-on-year increase of 2.79%. The on grid power was 2.091 billion kwh, and the power generation revenue was 1.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 48.03%. In October 2021, the company obtained the development right of Wulanchabu 500MW project, which will be connected to the grid with full capacity by the end of 2022. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the company continued to speed up the development and construction of wind farms, explore asset light service business and create a new engine.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the acceleration of the company’s production expansion, the improvement of its leading position and the increase of profit forecast, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 1.68923373294 billion (the previous value was RMB 1.4811696 billion from 2022 to 2023), a year-on-year increase of + 29% / 38% / 41%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.94/1.30/1.83, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: policies fail to meet expectations, competition intensifies, etc.
