\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 305 Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) )
Events
The company released the annual report of 2021: the operating revenue was 254 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 73 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107%; The gross profit margin reached 43.1%.
Key investment points
Product iteration is accelerated and new orders are abundant
In 2021, the R & D investment of the company reached 78 million yuan, accounting for 30.6% of the revenue. Through further optimization on the basis of the original products, the R & D achievements were gradually implemented, and a total of 76 new intellectual property rights were obtained. The company’s new orders were abundant, reaching 332 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.8%, and the repurchase rate of customers reached more than 40%. Among them, the flexible automatic production line business made a breakthrough, and four automatic production line contracts were signed, with a total amount of 31 million yuan; The company has achieved zero breakthrough in the fields of semiconductor wafer thinning machine, environmental protection equipment, petrochemical pump valve and so on. In 2021, the average unit price of the whole machine sold by the company was 1.85 million yuan; 158 sets of complete machines were produced and put into storage, with a year-on-year increase of 56.4%.
The demand for high-end machine tools is urgent, and domestic substitution ushers in opportunities
Thanks to the remarkable effect of epidemic control in China, which has stimulated export demand and promoted the recovery of manufacturing industry, and the arrival of machine tool renewal cycle, China’s machine tool industry shows a bottom recovery trend. In 2021, the output of China’s metal cutting machine tools reached 602000, with a year-on-year increase of 35%. At the same time, according to the customs data, the total amount of China’s imported processing centers was US $2.67 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 43.9%. On the other hand, China is strictly controlled by western countries on the export of high-end CNC machine tools represented by five axis linkage CNC machine tools. The rapid development of aviation industry and military industry urgently needs the autonomy of high-end machine tools. In 2021, the company realized the business income of high-end CNC machine tools of 233 million yuan, accounting for 92.0% of the revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 35.9%. According to COMAC’s annual report on market forecast (20182037), it is estimated that by 2037, China will deliver a total of 9008 passenger planes, worth about 9trillion yuan. The total market space of aircraft manufacturing in the next 20 years is about 10.4 trillion yuan. At the same time, the industrial cluster effect brought by the rapid growth of China’s aviation industry will accelerate the migration of the global aviation manufacturing industry to China. In the future, more than 2.7 trillion yuan of post aviation markets such as maintenance support and engineering services will also be opened to Chinese enterprises, bringing new markets and development opportunities.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 335 million yuan, 461 million yuan and 624 million yuan respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 100 million yuan, 131 million yuan and 193 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 58, 44 and 30 times respectively. Considering the moat of the company’s technology autonomy in the field of high-end machine tools, it was covered for the first time and was rated “recommended”.
Risk tips
The progress of domestic substitution is lower than expected; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Government policy support to reduce risks; Risk of loss of core technical personnel, etc.
