Industrial metals: the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting pointed out that it supports raising interest rates by 50 basis points and plans to shrink the table by US $95 billion per month, making the US dollar stronger. Member countries of the International Energy Agency may release 120 million barrels of crude oil reserves, with international oil prices falling by more than 5%, and commodity prices under pressure. In China, the PMI of the construction industry rebounded against the trend in March, the real estate policies in many places were relaxed, the infrastructure investment is expected to fall, the demand for industrial metals in the upstream of the real estate industry chain may pick up, and the price of industrial metals is expected to remain high. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) , etc.
Copper: continued high and strong shock under low inventory
Global copper prices rose slightly this week, continuing to fluctuate from high to strong. LME copper closed at US $10344 / ton, up about 0.73% in the week; Shanghai copper closed at 73760 yuan / ton, up about 0.82% during the week. The total inventory of SHFE copper in this period was 96600 tons, an increase of about 3.72% over last week. Affected by the epidemic, it is difficult to pick up goods in the downstream, resulting in accumulated reserves and weak overall orders. In the short term, the copper market is generally weak in supply and demand, and the copper price fluctuates at a high level. However, in the long run, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, China’s loose macro expectation is good for the repair of metal demand, superimposing the background of global low inventory, or supporting copper prices.
Aluminum: short-term consumption weakened, and aluminum prices continued to callback
LME aluminum closed at US $3372 / ton, down about 1.98% during the week; Shanghai aluminum closed at 21825 yuan / ton, down about 3.60% during the week. LME aluminum inventory recorded 618500 tons, a decrease of about 3.18% over last week; The total inventory of SHFE aluminum in this period was 307400 tons, an increase of about 0.53% over last week. China’s aluminum social inventory has entered a cumulative state, and Shanghai aluminum is under pressure. However, in the long run, due to the large amount of infrastructure and other fields, the demand for aluminum is considerable. In the future, with the improvement of the epidemic, China’s aluminum consumption may recover rapidly, and aluminum may maintain low inventory, and the aluminum price is still supported.
Tin: Tin inventory increased significantly and remained high
LME tin closed at US $43530 / ton, down 1.09% from last week. Shanghai tin closed at 340770 yuan / ton, down 0.05% from last week. LEM inventory 2800 tons, an increase of 41% over last week; This week, the inventory of Shanghai tin was 2600 tons, an increase of 4.58% over last week. Tin inventory increased significantly, putting pressure on tin prices. According to SMM research, at this stage, the supply-demand relationship at the mine end in China remains stable temporarily, keeping the processing fee unchanged. On the demand side, it continues to be affected by the epidemic in the short term, the commencement is limited, the market trading situation is general, and the demand performance is relatively stable. With the improvement of the epidemic situation, the steady growth continues to be realized, the future consumption expectation may remain optimistic, and the tin price is expected to remain high and volatile.
Zinc: stable growth is expected to be strong, and the bottom support of zinc price remains strong
LME zinc closed at US $4298 / ton, down 0.76% from last week. The energy problem in Europe continued to ferment, and the reduction of smelter production exacerbated the shortage of zinc ingots in Europe. LEM inventory in the week was 125700 tons, a decrease of 10.2% compared with last week. Trafigura group extracted zinc inventory from the London Stock Exchange on a large scale to make up for the supply gap of the company caused by the reduction of production in Europe. High energy prices may continue to underpin zinc prices. This week, Shanghai zinc closed at 27150 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.02% over last week. China’s fundamentals, supply side, SMM’s expected output in April is lower than expected, which is due to the maintenance or shutdown of some smelters. On the consumer side, the zinc price remained high and the market trading was cold. In the long run, the production capacity at the smelting end will gradually recover, and the demand for raw materials will rise accordingly. The expectation of steady growth in the Chinese market is strong, the real estate policy is continuously relaxed, and the export window of zinc ingots is opened. After the epidemic situation improves, it may accelerate the destocking or support the upward rise of zinc price.
Energy metals: this week, due to the impact of the epidemic and the market shock caused by the previous unstable nickel price, the overall supply and demand of the energy metal market this week was weak, and the price remained high under the basically stable trend. The new energy automobile industry, which is highly related to energy metals, continues to be in the stage of rapid development, and the production and sales of many automobile enterprises continued to improve in March. This trend also helps to drive the recovery of demand for energy metals. It is expected that in the future, with the improvement of the epidemic and the gradual return of the market to stability, the price of energy metals will continue to remain high. It is suggested to be followed by the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , etc.
Lithium: spodumene prices rose sharply, and industrial profits continued to transfer to the mine end
This week, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate closed at 501500 yuan / ton, down 0.2% from last week; The price of lithium hydroxide closed at 491500 yuan / ton, the same as last week’s data. On the supply side, mineral materials continued to be tight. This week, the price of lithium concentrate closed at 3075 yuan / ton, up 6.2% from last week, and the profits of the industrial chain continued to transfer to the mine side. At the smelting end, according to SMM, the output of the salt lake is expected to increase significantly month on month. However, some manufacturers plan to carry out short-term maintenance in April, and the overall output growth is slower than before. On the demand side, according to SMM, the demand for the four cathode materials decreased due to the reduction of orders this month. At the same time, affected by the nickel price event, the orders of high nickel manufacturers in April were affected, and the demand for lithium hydroxide also decreased.
Supply increases and demand decreases, and the price may fluctuate slightly in the short term. However, it is expected that after the market further returns to stability, the demand for lithium products will pick up, and the lithium price may remain high.
Cobalt: the market supply and demand are both weak, and the cobalt price fluctuates slightly
This week, the price of SMM electrolytic cobalt was 549000574000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 10000 yuan / ton lower than last week. The price of cobalt was $33.9/lb, the same as that of smm-5 last week. On the supply side, because the production profit is far less than the cost, China’s production is relatively flat and the inventory continues to decrease. On the demand side, affected by the epidemic, the logistics is blocked and the downstream operation rate is reduced. The high price of lithium and nickel also leads to the weakening of the demand for cobalt salt in the downstream. The cobalt salt plant is cautious about production, the demand for electric cobalt is weak, and the inquiry is sporadic. Overall, the current market is in a weak state of both supply and demand, resulting in slight price fluctuations this week.
Nickel: the market is weak in both supply and demand, and the nickel price fluctuates at a high level
This week, LME nickel closed at US $33990 / ton and SHFE nickel closed at 215810 yuan / ton. The price was basically the same as last week. In terms of inventory, the global total inventory this week was about 86798 tons, an increase of about 1.4% over last week, and the trend of destocking has been eased. At present, the market is still in the stage of double short recovery. On the supply side, production and logistics are greatly affected by the current epidemic, and some nodes of the industrial chain have reduced production.
On the demand side, the nickel market continues to stagnate due to the high nickel price and the relatively weak purchase intention of the demand side. As this situation is expected to continue for some time, nickel prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term.
Precious metals: the properties of risk aversion and anti inflation are highlighted, and the price of gold continues to rise
COMEX gold closed at $1950.4 an ounce this week, up 1.14% from last week. COMEX silver futures closed at $24.91 an ounce, up 0.65% from last week. As of April 2, the number of initial jobless claims fell to 166000, a new low since 1968, well below the 200000 expected by the market. The employment data supported the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates. This week, the US dollar index continued to rise, approaching the 100 mark, and the price of precious metals was under pressure. However, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, according to Agence France Presse, Russia is ready to launch a major offensive in eastern Ukraine, escalating short-term geopolitical risks. In addition, on April 8, the EU officially approved the fifth round of sanctions against Russia. The Western sanctions against Russia increased, boosted the rise of energy and food prices and exacerbated inflation concerns. The lack of progress in the Russian Ukrainian peace talks, rising prices and future economic uncertainty have enhanced the attractiveness of gold and pushed the gold price higher. From the perspective of gold’s risk aversion and anti inflation properties, the short-term gold price may remain high and volatile.
Rare earth: the price of Rare Earth continues to decline, and the long-term fundamentals are still good
This week, the rare earth market fluctuated and adjusted, generally continuing the weak and stable trend of last week. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide and the mainstream transaction price of praseodymium and neodymium metal market have been reduced to a certain extent. On the supply side, affected by the epidemic, the logistics and transportation are blocked, and the production of upstream enterprises has been affected to a certain extent. At the same time, the China Myanmar gateway is still closed, and the supply of medium and heavy rare earths is still tight. On the demand side, the current market price is unstable, downstream orders are delayed, the demand for spot procurement of downstream enterprises is weak, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, and the trading volume is small. But on the whole, the current demand is only temporarily suppressed. After the market is stable, the demand situation may improve and the price may be supported. The rapid and stable development of downstream wind power, new energy vehicles and other industries is good news for the rare earth market. On the whole, the fundamentals of rare earths are still good for a long time. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) etc.
Risk tips:
Metal prices fluctuated sharply, the demand for new energy fell sharply, and the macroeconomic performance was lower than expected
