Home export sector:
The direct impact of tariff exemption on the performance of household enterprises will be relatively limited, and we still need to pay attention to the downstream demand after the epidemic. On March 23, 2022, the office of the U.S. trade representative said that it would resume the tariff exemption of some goods imported from China. The tariff exemption involves 352 of the previous 549 pending products. This provision will apply to goods imported from China between October 12, 2021 and December 31, 2022. In the exemption list, home products are less involved and mostly furniture components. We believe that the exemption will upload and deliver a positive signal of marginal improvement of trade policy to a certain extent. However, due to the small overlap between the categories listed in the exemption list and the main product categories of home export companies, the direct impact on performance improvement will be relatively limited.
In 2021, furniture exports reached US $73.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 26.4%. From January to February of 22, household exports reached US $11.22 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 2.2%. In 2021, China’s exports reached US $3.36 trillion, a year-on-year increase of + 29.9%, of which the export of furniture and parts reached US $73.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 26.4%. From January to February 2022, the total export volume was 544702 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of + 16.3%, of which the export of furniture was 11.22 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of + 2.2%.
After the epidemic, the demand as a whole or tends to be stable, and there is structural differentiation in sub categories. The export sector is still under pressure in the short term due to the impact of shipping, raw materials and exchange rate. It is optimistic that the supply side concentration will be improved and the leading competitive advantage will be further strengthened in the long term. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern: (1) supply side: in the first half of the year, the income of listed export enterprises increased significantly and the profit was under pressure. In the second half of the year, they were still limited by the shortage of shipping capacity, the pressure of raw materials and the pressure of RMB appreciation. The growth rate of subdivided industries in the export sector gradually decreased. Under the long-term high pressure of the industry, it is not ruled out that some small and medium-sized production capacity may be cleared, and the industry concentration may be further improved; (2) Demand side: the global epidemic broke out in 20 years, and the demand for overseas durable consumer goods continued to increase. Since the second half of 21 years, with the improvement of the epidemic and other effects, overseas production capacity has gradually recovered, and the demand may tend to grow steadily. In the long run, (1) industry level: China has a stable position in the global supply chain and complete supporting facilities for relevant industries, (2) company level: Home export leaders have strong anti risk ability, take the lead in the layout of overseas production capacity, have strong stability of production and supply, and further strengthen the competitive advantage in overseas markets. It is suggested to pay attention to the household leaders [Minhua holdings], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ], the sub track leaders [ Cocreation Grass Co Ltd(605099) ], and the [ Hhc Changzhou Corp(301061) ] [ Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) ], [ Keeson Technology Corporation Limited(603610) ], [ Changzhou Kaidi Electrical Inc(605288) ].
Aluminum plastic film sector:
On the whole, the aluminum-plastic film industry is in short supply. At present, the core driving force of the demand for aluminum-plastic film is the rapid growth of soft pack battery shipments, and the future increment may come from two wheeled electric vehicles, energy storage batteries, solid-state batteries and other fields. According to the data of evtank and Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) prospectus, the proportion of global soft pack battery shipments increased from 23.93% in 2012 to 55.83% in 2020, and the shipments in 2020 were 107.7gwh, yoy + 28.1%; From the perspective of competition pattern, the global aluminum-plastic film is mainly monopolized by Japanese enterprises, of which greater Japan printing (DNP) occupies 50% of the global market share and Showa electric occupies 20% of the market share. At present, China’s aluminum plastic film technology has made progress, product performance and reliability have been improved, and the supply system has been gradually improved, forming a virtuous cycle feedback from upstream and downstream, which is on the eve of domestic substitution. [ Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) ] is recommended. The core logic is domestic substitution. The essential reason is technological progress and the gradual improvement of upstream and downstream supply system. The average price in 21 years is 16.4 yuan / Ping, with an increase of 0.9 yuan / Ping; Among them, the income of 21h2 aluminum plastic film was 197 million yuan, an increase of 18.0% month on month; The sales volume was 117119 million square meters, a month on month increase of 12.0%; The average price was 16.9 yuan / square, an increase of 0.9 yuan / square month on month; The net interest rate of aluminum plastic film business was 18.9%, with a month on month increase of 1.6pcts. At the beginning of the 21st century, Zijiang new materials entered the supply chain of Byd Company Limited(002594) DMI blade batteries and opened the application of Chinese soft pack lithium battery materials in square lithium batteries. 21h2 introduced ATL and Byd Company Limited(002594) as strategic investors of Zijiang new materials. At present, the company’s design capacity of aluminum-plastic film is 36.6 million square meters / year, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.9% in 21 years. It has established stable cooperative relations with well-known manufacturers such as ATL, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) and continued to recommend.
Domestic household sector:
Adhere to the premise of “no speculation in housing and housing”, implement policies according to the city to meet the reasonable housing needs of property buyers. On March 5, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in the government work report that we should continue to ensure the housing needs of the masses, adhere to the positioning of “housing without speculation”, and support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers. In March 2nd, Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that the momentum of China’s real estate bubble financial transformation was fundamentally reversed. It is expected that the policies to curb demand will gradually ease and optimize. The real estate is expected to be repaired upward and is optimistic about the valuation and repair of the home sector. According to the recent grassroots research feedback of the industrial chain, the orders received by household enterprises generally maintained a good trend from January to February. On the premise of the high base of 21q1, the leading enterprises still maintained high growth, superimposed on the upcoming 315 promotion, the household leading enterprises gave full play to the advantages of the supply chain, combined with the head brands of household appliances, launched the whole package including multiple categories, the customer unit price is expected to continue to increase, and continue to be optimistic about the household leading enterprises focusing on “domestic demand + 2C”, [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] [recommended retail and large household channels account for a high proportion of 315 activities.
New tobacco sector:
The measures for the administration of electronic cigarettes and the national standard (second draft for comments) were issued, and the supervision was gradually implemented to promote the orderly development of the industry. On March 11, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration issued the national standard for electronic cigarette (second exposure draft), which will be publicized until March 17, 2022; Meanwhile, the measures for the administration of electronic cigarettes will be issued, and the new regulations will come into force on May 1. We believe that (1) from the perspective of supervision, the overall supervision of e-cigarettes is basically consistent with that of cigarettes. All links need permission and approval, and adopt unified centralized purchase platform sales; (2) The existing competition pattern of e-cigarettes will be broken, and e-cigarettes will enter the monopoly era. On the product side, the coincidence rules and quality are beneficial to manufacturers with high production standards, high-tech reserves and high capital reserves; The national, provincial and municipal representatives of e-cigarettes on the channel side will face a reshuffle. Abroad, on March 25, 2022, the three products of Imperial Tobacco logic showed the leading effect of the head brand through PMTA.
Forestry carbon sequestration:
China is expected to become the world’s largest carbon trading market, and forestry carbon sequestration is the “gold” in CCER project. The global carbon market covers 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions, 54% of global GDP and nearly one third of the population. It is estimated that the total quota of the global carbon market will exceed 7.5 billion tons in 2021; In 2019, China’s carbon dioxide emissions accounted for 28.8% of the world, which is expected to become the world’s largest carbon trading market! As a “negative carbon” approach in the process of “carbon neutralization”, forestry carbon sequestration has the characteristics of large carbon sequestration, low cost and high ecological added value. It is the “gold” in CCER project. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) ].
Paper sector:
The cost side drive superimposed the replenishment of inventory after the holiday, and the price of paper enterprises rose moderately in March. Recently, affected by the closure of UPM factory and the shortage of logistics in Canada, the supply of raw materials of pulp and paper industry continued to be tight, and the prices of coniferous pulp and broad-leaved pulp continued to rise. Downstream Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) , app, Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Huatai Paper, Jianghe paper, Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) and many other paper mills issued price increase letters in March, raising the price by about 300 yuan / ton. In terms of waste paper, in April 2022, the shutdown letters of Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) were released again. Among them, four paper machines in Chongqing Jiulong were shut down for 12-16 days from April 8 to April 27; Fujian Shanying’s Pm32 will be shut down for 10 days from April 1 to April 10; In addition, Shanying paper announced on March 25 that all paper types produced by each base will be increased by 100 yuan / ton again on April 7. Dongguan Nine Dragons will increase corrugated paper, whiteboard and other paper types by 50-150 yuan / ton from April 7. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ], [ Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) ], [ Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) ], [ Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) ].
Risk warning: real estate sales and completion are not as expected; Upward risk of raw material price; Industry competition intensifies; The risk of Sino US trade friction.
