Market review of transportation and social service industry this week
Among the 31 shenwanyi industries, the cumulative growth of transportation and social service industries this week (April 4-april 8) were + 1.86% and + 0.17% respectively, ranking 7th and 11th respectively; The CSI 300 index rose by – 1.06%.
Among the 134 Shenwan secondary industries, this week (April 4-april 8), the cumulative growth of tourism and scenic spots, airports, hotels and restaurants were + 1.97%, + 0.60%, – 0.73% respectively, ranking 24th, 36th and 58th respectively.
Travel and tourism data during the Qingming Festival holiday
1) according to the data of the Ministry of culture and tourism, during the three-day Tomb Sweeping Day holiday in 2022, 75.419 million people traveled in China, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% and a comparable recovery to 68.0% in the same period in 2019; China’s tourism revenue reached 18.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.9%, returning to 39.2% in the same period in 2019.
2) according to the Ministry of transport, from April 3 to 5, 2022, the national highway is expected to send 46.34 million passengers, a decrease of 53.2% over the same period in 2021 and an increase of 0.9% over the same period in 2020; The waterway is expected to send 650000 passengers, a decrease of 77.0% over the same period in 2021 and 42.5% over the same period in 2020; Civil aviation is expected to send 562000 passengers, a decrease of 87.0% over the same period in 2021 and 53.8% over the same period in 2020.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: 1) China: from April 2 to April 8, China reported about 13.4 local confirmed cases (including asymptomatic infections), mainly in Shanghai, Jilin, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Jiangxi, Shandong, Fujian, Henan, Heilongjiang and other places. 2) Global: from April 2 to April 8, there were about 7.66 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia overseas, with a month on month ratio of – 22.4%; The number of new deaths was about 2.6, a month on month increase of – 17.3%. As of April 8, 2022, there were about 496 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia and 6.19 million deaths worldwide. 3) United States: from April 2 to April 8, about 220000 new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were diagnosed in the United States, up 4.0% month on month; There were 3676 new deaths, down 23.3% month on month. As of April 8, 2022, the cumulative diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia in the United States is about 82.03 million, and the cumulative death is about 1.01 million. 4) UK: from April 2 to April 8, about 330000 new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were diagnosed in the UK, down 36.9% month on month; A total of 4191 deaths were added, up 272.5% month on month. As of April 8, 2022, about 21.71 million cases of covid-19 pneumonia in the UK have been diagnosed and 170000 cases have died. Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: according to the official website of the National Health Commission, as of April 8, the country had reported about 3.29 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine; At the same time, the third needle was introduced throughout the country to strengthen needle vaccination. About 2.65 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were inoculated every day from April 2 to April 8, a month on month decrease of 30.1%. 2) Global: according to ourworldindata, as of April 8, about 11.37 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine had been vaccinated worldwide, and about 64.7% of the world’s population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
Airport & aviation: under the impact of the epidemic, the number of flights hit a record low, and small and medium-sized Airlines started a wave of salary arrears
1) industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from April 2 to April 8, the daily average number of flights executed by Chinese and international routes was about 3292, a year-on-year decrease of 75.3% in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of – 36.8% and – 77.2% respectively in 2020 and 2019, and a month-on-week decrease of 9.9%.
2) aviation department: from April 2 to April 8, according to the data of flight standards, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, spring and autumn, Jixiang and Huaxia were 344, 541, 313, 74, 21 and 102 respectively, with the average of – 2.7%, – 22.5%, + 2.3%, – 24.2%, – 49.3% and + 15.2% respectively.
3) Airport: from April 2 to April 8, according to the data of flight control, the average daily takeoff and landing sorties of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Beijing Daxing and Shenzhen Bao’an were 395, 30, 5, 177, 147 and 228 respectively, up from – 9%, – 54%, – 92%, – 16%, + 3% and + 39% respectively last week.
4) 6 Shenzhen Centralcon Investment Holding Co.Ltd(000042) 021 annual report: the company’s operating revenue in 2021 was 5.18 billion yuan / – 0.85%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -406 million yuan, and the loss increased by 156 million yuan year-on-year; The net profit deducted from non parent company was -455 million yuan, and the loss narrowed by 198 million yuan year-on-year.
5) Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) 2021 annual report: the total revenue in 2021 was 3.306 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.31%, returning to 97% in 2019. During the period, the increase in expense rate resulted in a net loss attributable to the parent company of 34 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 225%. The operating income of Q4 alone increased by 9.25% year-on-year, and the net loss attributable to the parent company was 46 million.
6) the small and medium air division has raised the wage arrears: according to the official account of the civil aviation blackboard newspaper, the early announcement of the internal wage announcement was made by the Kai Kai airlines and the East China Sea airlines in early April.
7) according to the air travel circle, Changlong airlines, previously owned by the whole people, introduced two local government shareholders, Zhejiang Industrial Fund and Hangzhou Xiaoshan Industrial Fund.
Tax exemption: the tax-free discount on Hainan outlying islands increased slightly month on month
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from April 3 to April 9, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 52 and 127 respectively, with – 55% and – 38% month on month and – 85% and – 71% year-on-year respectively; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou airport was (expected) 13066 person times, with – 44% month on month and – 79% year-on-year.
2) tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the discount intensity of direct mail and China free outlying islands increased slightly, and the tax-free discount intensity of Haifa control, China travel investment, China export service and Shenzhen free outlying islands were basically the same month on month.
Investment advice
1) recommend Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of international flight recovery may be at present, and the company will show great profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) recommendation Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : China’s transportation capacity accounts for a large proportion, its performance is the first to recover, its profit performance is more stable before the opening of the door, its long-term growth is high, and intercontinental routes are expected to become a new growth point.
4) recommendation Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : obvious scale advantage, obvious improvement in management, accelerated overseas recovery, and is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
5) recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market. Under the three-year goal of 10000 stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%.
6) recommendation Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) : the proportion of Direct stores in Junting is high, and that of Junlan resort hotel is high. The demand recovery stage is expected to show high elasticity, and the medium-term scale is expected to show high growth.
7) recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying islands + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space, and the expansion of outlying island duty-free stores in 22 years is expected to bring new catalysis.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the demand of the industry was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified.
