The fluctuation of the index in the banking sector increased this week (4.6-4.8), and the overall index continued to rebound moderately. As of the last trading day of this week, the price to book ratio exceeded LF0 65pb, the valuation level has increased on a weekly basis, and the market heat has increased. The average daily trading volume is 938.7 billion yuan (on a weekly basis + 1.2%). This week, the central bank’s wide caliber (including 7-day reverse repo) net recovery is 570 billion yuan, the 7-day reverse repo interest rate remains 2.10%, and the overall liquidity is at a good level; On Friday (April 8), it was announced that the weighted value of dr007 was 1.94%, which was lower than the reverse repo rate, with good liquidity and good conduction of interest rate guidance level.
Control risks, protect enterprises and develop steadily. This week, the valuation level of China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) sector maintained a steady upward trend, and the momentum for valuation repair remained. At the international level, the foreign political and economic environment is highly uncertain, and the imported inflation pressure continues to affect China; At the Chinese level, China faces three major pressures: supply constraints, insufficient demand and weakening expectations. Against this background, we see that the repair of bank valuation will face certain constraints. Under the background of the epidemic, there are great challenges to the recovery and development of China’s industry and service industry. On April 6, the national standing committee meeting was chaired by Premier Li Keqiang. It was decided to implement the policy of phased deferred payment of endowment insurance premiums for industries in extreme poverty, increase the support of unemployment insurance for job stabilization and training, and make timely use of monetary policy tools to more effectively support the development of the real economy. Many local governments have also issued platforms to announce various policies such as reducing and exempting relevant fees for local enterprises simultaneously, so as to help all walks of life overcome the difficulties faced by the epidemic, stabilize the development of enterprises, stabilize the people’s livelihood economy, and increase the rescue efforts for various market entities.
The real estate industry is gradually returning to health, and the asset quality is expected to improve steadily. Many places will gradually liberalize the threshold of individual house purchase, give people preferential housing loan policies, and liberalize the purchase and sale restrictions. The above measures will boost people’s enthusiasm for house purchase, inject confidence into the real estate industry and increase the guarantee for the follow-up liquidity of the market. In addition, in the context of epidemic prevention and control, the six major state-owned banks and a number of small and medium-sized banks made it clear that individual loan customers affected by the epidemic can apply for deferred repayment, and can provide service support including delayed repayment time, extended loan term and adjustment of bill plan. The time of deferred repayment ranges from 28 days to 6 months. At the same time, they said that individual loan customers affected by the epidemic can apply for deferred repayment, And will not affect the customer’s credit investigation record. These humanized measures will help alleviate the short-term pressure of lenders and contribute to the healthy and sustainable development of the industry. From the current perspective, due to the disturbance of the epidemic in the short term, we believe that the phased rebound of the banking sector is not easy to exceed expectations. However, from the medium and long-term perspective, the improvement of interest income and non interest income brought by scale expansion and deepening wealth management is predictable, stable, and the risk is generally controllable. At present, the Pb level of the banking sector is still at the low level in the past decade, so the logic of the overall valuation improvement remains unchanged.
Market performance
The banking sector index rose 1.15% this week, outperforming the market. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.2%, the gem index fell 3.64%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.06%. The recommendations focus on high-quality joint-stock banks ( Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 36 , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) ).
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risk, tightening monetary policy, increasing risk of non-performing rate, outbreak of major risks and events of default, etc.
