Macro: the national Standing Committee releases the expectation of steady growth, and the minutes of the Federal Reserve are hawkish. On April 6, Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council, which mainly made relevant work arrangements in three aspects. First, stabilize market expectations from five aspects and maintain the steady and healthy development of the capital market. The second is to implement the policy of bail-out and employment disclosure for the extremely poor industries. Third, timely use monetary policy tools to more effectively support the real economy. On April 6, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the interest rate meeting in March, which not only strengthened the expectation that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 50 basis points at a time, but also showed the tendency of the Federal Reserve to tighten the currency by raising interest rates sharply many times and shrinking its balance sheet faster.
Steel: the process of going to the warehouse is delayed by the epidemic, and the allocation opportunity is met under the condition of steady growth. This week, the output of rebar increased significantly by 2.11% month on month, and the consumption decreased significantly by 3.45% month on month. The resumption of production of steel enterprises continued this week. According to Mysteel, the capacity utilization rate of rebar in the process of this week was 75.4%, with a slight increase of 1.20pct month on month. The national development and Reform Commission will maintain the normal order of the market and ensure the stable operation of iron ore and coal prices, which may benefit steel enterprises on the cost side.
New energy metals: the price of overseas lithium ore is rising, and China’s lithium market remains stable. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 491500 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 501500 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.2% month on month, and the growth rate slowed down. This week, the month on month ratio of MB standard cobalt was flat, and the month on month ratio of Co3O4 decreased slightly. In terms of nickel, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was US $33500 / ton, up 2.13% month on month.
Industrial metals: inflation and steady growth expectations are superimposed, and copper and aluminum operate at a high level. This week, the TC / RC of copper smelters increased significantly by 2.79% month on month, the global refined copper output and primary refined copper output increased significantly in December, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level of 90% in February, and increased slightly by 0.61pct month on month; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly month on month, while LME aluminum inventory decreased significantly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper increased slightly by 1.40% month on month, and the current price of LME aluminum increased significantly by 1.50% month on month; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shandong and Inner Mongolia decreased month on month this week.
Gold: the pace of raising interest rates is gradual, and the price of gold continues to fluctuate. This week, Comex gold price rose slightly by 0.32% month on month, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold decreased significantly by 4.68% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 2.66%, up slightly by 0.27pct month on month.
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: Steel: in terms of plain steel, it is suggested to focus on the one hand, on the one hand, on the proposed Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) \ ( Hubei Shuanghuan Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(000707) 070707070707070708, buy in, Hubei Shuanghuan Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(000707) 07070708, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in), and ( Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , not rated) Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) ( Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , not rated); In terms of special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to new energy nuclear power special material suppliers, such as Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) ( Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , buy).
New energy metals: it is suggested to pay attention to enterprises rich in lithium resources such as Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , buy), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , not rated), etc.
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , buy) with both copper and gold ends expanding; And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ( Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ( Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , buy), and high-end aluminum enterprises Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , not rated).
Jin: it is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , not rated), Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) ( Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) , not rated), etc
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials
