This week’s opinion update:
The policy set the tone again and firmly recommended the main opportunity of “stable growth”: Premier Li Keqiang pointed out that the policy measures should rely on the front force and timely force, clarify the plans to be launched as early as possible, and study and prepare new plans. We judge that “stable growth” is still the main theme of the policy throughout the year. Continue to be firmly optimistic about the investment opportunities in relevant sectors throughout the year, including infrastructure central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises and design units in the construction industry, as well as cement enterprises and pipeline enterprises in the building materials industry.
The real estate relaxation policy is upgraded again and the real estate chain allocation opportunities are optimistic: since April, many cities have successively relaxed the real estate market regulation policies, and the relaxation direction has expanded from the previous relaxation of loan restrictions to the relaxation of purchase and sales restrictions. With the gradual transmission of relevant policies and the gradual mitigation of the epidemic, the follow-up is expected to usher in the data inflection point of sales transactions, and the real estate chain will welcome the allocation opportunity. We are optimistic about the demand for float glass in 2022 and recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) . In the field of consumer building materials, we believe that after the real estate sales data pick up, we recommend Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , and suggest paying attention to Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) .
The first REIT in the year was popular with funds, and public REITs welcomed the issuance opportunity: on April 7, the subscription of the first public REIT in China China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) reit this year was hot, setting a new record of placement proportion. We believe that the current issuance of public REITs has favorable conditions at both ends of supply and demand, and the subsequent issuance scale will be significantly increased. 2022 will be the great year of public REITs issuance.
Market performance and high frequency data tracking this week:
Market performance: this week, CITIC Building materials index was + 4.00%, of which other structural materials sector increased the most (+ 12.59%) and ceramics sector decreased the most (- 2.48%); This week, CITIC construction index was + 6.19%, with the largest increase in infrastructure construction (+ 9.28%) and the smallest increase in building decoration II (+ 1.57%); This week, the infrastructure public offering REITs sector decreased by – 0.56% (arithmetic average), among which the REIT of Zhangjiang Everbright Park in Hua’an increased the most (+ 1.23%), and Shougang green energy decreased the most (- 4.19%).
High frequency data (4.2-4.8): cement: po42 this week 5. The average price of cement is 515 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.63%; The storage capacity ratio is 67.13%, with a month on month ratio of + 2.01pct. Glass: the spot price of glass this week was 1988 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of – 1.97%; The inventory was 650662 million heavy containers, with a month on month increase of + 3.67%. The average price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass was 27.5 yuan / m2, a month on month increase of + 5.77%; The average price of 2mm photovoltaic glass is 21.20 yuan / m2, a month on month increase of + 6.00%; Glass fiber: the price of winding direct yarn this week was 6450 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The price of G75 electronic yarn was 8750 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month. Carbon fiber: the average market price of carbon fiber this week was 186.25 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The average price of large tow in China is 145 yuan / kg, and the average price of small tow in China is 225 yuan / kg, which is flat month on month.
Investment suggestions:
Building materials sector: in the direction of periodic products, float is the best at this stage (it is suggested to pay attention to: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) etc.); In the direction of capital construction, pay attention to the elasticity of cement and some pipeline enterprises (it is suggested to pay attention to: Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ); The time point for strategic layout of consumer building materials has come (it is suggested to pay attention to: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ); New material direction, continue to recommend Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) .
Construction sector: optimistic about the equipment operating lease sector (it is recommended to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) etc.); Revaluation of sector value brought by public offering REITs of infrastructure construction (it is suggested to pay attention to: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) and other central enterprises); Optimistic about the trend of affordable housing and the investment opportunities of prefabricated buildings (it is recommended to pay attention to: Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , etc.); Some undervalued local state-owned enterprises also have good allocation value (recommended attention: Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) , Henan Provincial Communications Planning & Design Institute Co.Ltd(300732) , etc.); Be optimistic about the development trend of green building industry and pay attention to the thematic opportunities of building energy conservation.
Preferred portfolio: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) (16xpe, optimistic about the equipment rental track), China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (0.6xpb, revaluation of stock operating assets), China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (0.7xpb, optimistic about the improvement of real estate business against the trend), Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) (13xpe, the volume and price of ceramic fiber leaders rise together under the emission reduction trend), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (9xpe, the performance elasticity of float glass and the valuation elasticity brought by photovoltaic glass) Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) (34xpe, UTG, new electronic material value discovery). Note: the valuations are the 22-year forecast data of Everbright Building Materials team.
Risk analysis: infrastructure investment is less than expected; Real estate investment fell sharply; Rising raw fuel prices; The epidemic situation is repeated.
