Sichuan caizhou viewpoint
This week, the division of infrastructure sector was obvious. Traditional infrastructure sectors such as infrastructure engineering, engineering consulting, steel and cement rose collectively, while new infrastructure sectors such as UHV, 5g, new energy and digital infrastructure performed poorly.
The investment growth rate of traditional infrastructure in the first quarter is in line with expectations, and it is expected to exceed expectations in the second quarter. The certainty of performance growth is high. Coupled with geopolitics, the Fed's interest rate hike, the reduction of market liquidity and other factors, the market style has changed, and the traditional infrastructure with undervalued value, high dividend and relatively determined performance is expected to continue to maintain the main line market.
The fundamentals of new infrastructure are still strong, especially in the new energy field represented by wind power and photovoltaic. From the disclosed results of the first quarter, the performance growth rate of the enterprise is very strong. We expect the overall demand of the new energy industry to be strong and basically good. From the perspective of the overall valuation level, with the recent sharp correction, the overall valuation level of the industry has dropped to near the median of five-year valuation, entering a reasonable layout range. Considering the dual dimensions of fundamentals and valuation, we are optimistic that the new energy infrastructure is expected to rebound in the later stage.
Market performance in one week
On Friday, April 8, 2022, as of the closing, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% to close at 325185 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 2.20% and the gem index fell 3.64%. In terms of sectors, building decoration rose 6.06%, building materials rose 3.93%, power equipment fell 4.68% and communications fell 3.36%. Among the relevant sectors of the infrastructure industry, ordinary steel rose 7.3%, engineering consulting rose 6.03%, cement rose 5.8%, China Securities infrastructure rose 5.58%, wind power equipment fell 2.89%, communication equipment fell 4.01%, power grid equipment fell 4.47% and photovoltaic equipment fell 4.79%.
Industry dynamics
The National Bureau of statistics released the operation of PMI index in March, in which the business activity index of construction industry was 58.1%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month; The new order index of the construction industry was 51.2%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous month; The input price index of the construction industry was 61.4%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points over the previous month; The sales price index of the construction industry was 54.4%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points over the previous month; The employment index of the construction industry was 50.1%, down 5.7 percentage points from the previous month; The expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 60.3%, down 5.7 percentage points from the previous month. (bureau of Statistics website)
The national development and Reform Commission issued the implementation plan of the 14th five year plan for the construction of Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration. It is proposed that by 2025, the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration will further develop and grow, the urbanization rate of permanent residents will increase by more than 5 percentage points, the level of integrated development will continue to improve, and the blue Gulf urban agglomeration with excellent ecological environment, vibrant economy and excellent quality of life will be preliminarily completed. The level of infrastructure connectivity has been significantly improved, the comprehensive transportation network with high-speed railway, ordinary speed railway, intercity railway and high-grade highway as the backbone has been improved, the fast transportation channel connecting the "three South" has been basically completed, the container throughput of Guangxi Beibu Gulf international gateway port and Hainan Yangpu regional international container hub port has reached 10 million TEUs and 5 million TEUs respectively, and the construction of important bulk commodity storage and transportation bases in southern China has been accelerated. (NDRC website)
According to the statistical data disclosed by China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 26 main engine manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics from January to March 2022 sold 77175 sets of various excavation machinery products, a year-on-year decrease of 39.2%. Among them, 51886 units were sold in the Chinese market, a year-on-year decrease of 54.3%; The export sales volume was 25289 units, with a year-on-year increase of 88.6%. In March this year, the above 26 host machine manufacturing enterprises sold 37085 sets of all kinds of mining machinery products, a year-on-year decrease of 53.1%. Among them, 26556 units were sold in the Chinese market, with a year-on-year decrease of 63.6%; The export sales volume was 10529 units, with a year-on-year increase of 73.5%. (Securities Daily)
On March 29, Premier Li Keqiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council to study the work related to strengthening the construction of water conservancy projects in 2022 and expanding effective investment. The meeting pointed out that water conservancy projects are livelihood projects, development projects and safety projects. A number of projects that have been included in the plan and have mature conditions will be started this year, including major water diversion and transfer projects such as the follow-up project of the South-to-North Water Transfer, backbone flood control and disaster reduction, danger removal and reinforcement of dangerous reservoirs, irrigation area construction and reconstruction, etc. These projects, together with other water conservancy projects, can complete an investment of about 800 billion yuan in the whole year. (website of Ministry of water resources)
The national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the "14th five year plan" for modern energy system, which puts forward that in 2035, decisive progress will be made in high-quality energy development and a modern energy system will be basically completed. The ability to ensure energy security has been greatly improved, green production and consumption patterns have been widely formed, and the proportion of non fossil energy consumption has been further significantly increased on the basis of reaching 25% in 2030. Renewable energy power generation has become the main power supply, the construction of new power systems has achieved substantial results, and the total carbon emissions have decreased steadily after reaching the peak. (NDRC website)
Company dynamics
Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co.Ltd(603815) ( Anhui Gourgen Traffic Construction Co.Ltd(603815) ): it is estimated that the operating revenue in the first quarter of 2022 will be 856 million yuan to 954.77 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30% to 45% after retrospective adjustment of the data in the same period last year. It is estimated that in the first quarter of 2022, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses will be 28.38 million yuan to 31.54 million yuan, an increase of 35% to 50% year-on-year after retrospective adjustment of data in the same period last year.
Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) ( Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) ): the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company from January to March 2022 from 1300000000 yuan to 155000000 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 408.02% to 505.72%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 129 million yuan to 154 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 440.93% to 545.76%.
Haili wind power (301155): the company and Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) group Offshore Engineering Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) group, jointly invested to establish a joint venture. The registered capital of the joint venture is 500 million yuan, of which 245 million yuan is contributed by the company, accounting for 49% of the registered capital; Zhongtian ocean engineering invested 255 million yuan, accounting for 51% of the registered capital. Recently, the joint venture has completed the industrial and commercial registration procedures and obtained the business license issued by the administrative examination and approval Bureau of Binhai County, Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province.
Zhejiang Provincial New Energy Investment Group Co.Ltd(600032) ( Zhejiang Provincial New Energy Investment Group Co.Ltd(600032) ): the company expects the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company to be 174.8 million yuan to 209.8 million yuan in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 1508406 million yuan to 1858406 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, an increase of 629.57% to 775.65% year-on-year. The operating income of this period is 1008 million yuan to 1078 million yuan, which will increase by 5266614 million yuan to 5966614 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 109.42% to 123.96% Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) ( Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) ): the company expects to achieve a net profit of 3.9-4.4 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 69% - 90%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.8-3.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32% - 56%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was RMB 3 billion-3.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 460% - 553% Guangdong Aofei Data Technology Co.Ltd(300738) ( Guangdong Aofei Data Technology Co.Ltd(300738) ): the designated certification authority shall verify the greenhouse gas emissions of all self built data centers such as Guangzhou Jinfa data center and Langfang xunyun data center from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021 in accordance with the international standard iso140641, and cancel the corresponding amount of CCER (China Certified voluntary emission reduction) I-rec (international green card) and other carbon emission products neutralize the total amount of all greenhouse gas emissions within the above coverage time, so as to obtain the carbon neutralization certificate of the corresponding data center in 2021.
Risk warning: government expenditure is less than expected; The price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations; The epidemic situation has been repeated on a large scale.
