From the current personal non cash payment methods (mainly including C2B and C2C), the payment industry chain of China and the United States is mainly based on the four party clearing model: we believe that the eternal existence of payment demand, the changes of payment methods and payment carriers in the future, as well as the scientific and technological innovation of enterprises, may break the balance of the original industrial chain and create new opportunities.
The emergence of the four party liquidation system is the inevitable result of social division of labor and the compromise of the interests of all parties. From the perspective of the development process of “card payment” in the United States, it has mainly experienced four stages: 1) the two-party payment relationship formed by merchants and consumers; 2) The third-party clearing system formed after the third-party card organization joined; 3) The four party liquidation system formed after the liquidation institution joined; 4) Fintech has gradually joined the payment industry chain, forming a trend of letting a hundred flowers bloom. At present, China’s card payment and third-party payment also form a four party clearing system. The main participants in the industrial chain include merchants, acquirers, clearing institutions and issuers.
The profit distribution of the payment industry chain in the United States is relatively stable, but the stability of China’s payment industry chain has been broken once by third-party payment institutions. Under the four party clearing mode, the capital flow in the payment industry chain is fixed, and all profits come from merchant handling fees. The market segmentation competition pattern of each link determines the company’s income and market value ceiling in this link. In China, Alipay and WeChat pay for the industry chain through powerful scenarios and traffic flows. The revenue of the two billion scale comes from the issuing bank and clearing organization (when the electronic wallet is paid), and the profits of other game player (electronic wallet are tied to the bank card payment).
As a new payment carrier, digital RMB may improve the efficiency of China’s non cash payment industry chain and redistribute the profits of the industry chain in the future: 1) reduce the high circulation and management costs of paper money; 2) Break through the data barriers between financial institutions and improve the efficiency of money management; 3) Positioning M0, there is no service charge for merchants’ collection and consumers’ withdrawal; 4) Payment means settlement, and the clearing institution may be banned.
Observing the China US non cash payment industry chain, in addition to fixed players such as acquirers, clearing institutions and card issuers, more business model innovation and investment opportunities focus on the merchant side and user side, and the final foothold lies in traffic, scenarios and merchant services. First of all, we have no suggestions on building RMB digital infrastructure at the b-end. With the expansion of the implementation scale of digital RMB, pay attention to the business model innovation at the merchant end and flow end; And companies that provide marketing, user management and other services for banks.
Related objects: Bank IT enterprises, Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) ( Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) ), Digital China Information Service Company Ltd(000555) ( Digital China Information Service Company Ltd(000555) ), Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) ( Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) ), etc; Hard Wallet / financial machinery enterprises, Grg Banking Equipment Co.Ltd(002152) ( Grg Banking Equipment Co.Ltd(002152) ), Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) ( Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) ), Xgd Inc(300130) ( Xgd Inc(300130) ), etc; Payment / acquirer, Lakala Payment Co.Ltd(300773) ( Lakala Payment Co.Ltd(300773) ), etc; Security / encryption enterprise, Beijing Certificate Authority Co.Ltd(300579) ( Beijing Certificate Authority Co.Ltd(300579) ), Koal Software Co.Ltd(603232) ( Koal Software Co.Ltd(603232) ), Westone Information Industry Inc(002268) ( Westone Information Industry Inc(002268) ), etc.
Risk tip: the implementation progress of digital RMB does not meet expectations; The expansion of digital RMB application scenarios did not meet expectations; The construction of digital RMB underlying technology did not meet expectations; The relevant revenue generation rate of Companies in the digital RMB industrial chain did not meet expectations.
