Theme week:
Baijiu sector: Q1 still has a relatively high prosperity, and the epidemic has little impact on high-end. During the Spring Festival, the overall dynamic sales performance is good, and the goal of a good start is expected to be successfully achieved. We expect that all wine enterprises have basically completed the task of the first quarter from January to February. 3-4 months in the Baijiu industry, the low proportion of income, the current epidemic situation of the annual sales of wineries is still controllable. High end liquor is in the long-term value distribution range. With the gradual mitigation of the impact of the epidemic, the scene recovery and confidence recovery are expected to promote the rebound of the sector. At present, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , are mainly recommended.
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : 1) successful conclusion in 2021: the total operating revenue of the company in 2021 was 109.46 billion yuan, the main business revenue was 106.19 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, 11.9% and 12.3% respectively. The annual revenue performance met the market expectations, of which the main business revenue and profit in 2021q4 were 31.55 billion yuan and 15.19 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 13.9% and 18.1%. 2) The internal potential energy is upward. a. Gradually improve the product matrix and contribute income in succession; b. The idea of “five in one marketing method” is clear, the marketing reform is further promoted, and the launch of I Maotai platform is of great significance. Driven by the marketing reform, the proportion of direct sales of the company is expected to continue to rise steadily. 3) Looking forward to the future: A. in 2022, the operation will be better month on month, and the performance may continue to be better. b. In the medium and long term, the high brand barrier remains unchanged. President Ding proposed that the core task of the company is to actively seek change, vigorously promote the marketing reform, and promote the market work ability and level to achieve a qualitative leap. We believe that with the further promotion of market-oriented reform, it is expected to further promote the gradual recovery of external profits, and the path of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future will be clearer.
Dairy products sector: the epidemic highlights the rigidity of demand, the damage of the supply side and the constant strength of the leader. 1) After the dairy disease, the growth rate of dairy products was significantly increased, and the nutritional value of dairy products was significantly improved. 2) This round of epidemic mainly affects logistics and transportation, which mainly leads to strict sealing and control policies in many places. The logistics and transportation systems of Shanghai and other cities are affected. Dairy enterprises have made efforts to ensure supply through community group purchase, meituan preferred and other business channels. According to channel feedback, the inventory of Yili and Mengniu increased month on month in March, but it was still relatively benign. 3) Dairy products have strong mandatory attributes, strong terminal demand against the trend, damage to the supply side, short-term impact on dynamic sales, but the leader shows strong anti risk ability. Under the strategic differentiation of Yili and Mengniu, the competition pattern of dairy industry was optimized and the terminal cost rate contracted. With the cost pressure slowing down in 2022, the leader will continue to upgrade the product structure and improve the profitability. It is recommended to Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Mengniu Dairy industry.
Beer industry: affected by the epidemic in the short term, the growth rate slows down, and the upgrading of product channel structure drives the improvement of profit margin in the long term. The impact of the normalization of the epidemic on the beer industry is mainly reflected in: 1) channel Digitization: the epidemic is stable from January to February 2022. Due to the early layout of the Spring Festival and good shipment, the secondary high-end sales volume of China Resources beer has reached the highest in history. The company plans to achieve the target of 4 million tons of secondary high-end sales in 2025. Since March, due to the epidemic factors, the layout of high-end products has been restrained to a great extent, and the inventory and dynamic sales of e-commerce channels are also expected to continue to benefit. 2) Product health: the epidemic has led consumers to pay more attention to food safety and product health problems. Beer is mainly reflected in low calorie, low sugar and low alcohol concentration. 3) Scenario familialization: Residents’ travel and dining out are restrained, and consumer groups are gradually transformed into families and individuals. In the long run, with the gradual stabilization of the epidemic, the consumption potential of residents’ mass products is still strong, and the price increase of beer products continues to be transmitted to the terminal. The leading liquor enterprises are expected to drive the increase of profit margin through the upgrading of product and channel structure combined with the peak season in summer. Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , it is recommended to pay attention to China Resources beer and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) .
Risk tips: the macro economy is less than expected, the impact of the epidemic is repeated, the recovery of food demand is less than expected, and food safety problems.
